Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND INTO SE LOWER MICHIGAN. AIR
MASS OUT AHEAD OF FRONT STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST RUC
INDICATING CAPES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE AND THIS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA AS FRONT PUSHES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. GFS FASTER THAN ETA WITH PUSHING FRONT THROUGH TODAY
BUT BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PREFER SLOWER ETA FOR FRONTAL TIMING.
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HANG ON TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THEN SCALE BACK TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND INDICATE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A LOW
CHANCE IN FOR EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. FORECAST THEN LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. TEMPS TODAY A
LITTLE TOUGH DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTH OF FRONT.

.ILN...NONE.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AR