Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

UPPER AIR CHART HAS INVERTED TROF EXTENDING INTO ILN CWA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  TROF HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TEXAS AS PER
MODEL PROJECTIONS.  AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHWEST...A LARGE
UPPER HIGH WILL REPLACE IT.  MODELS HAVE STRENGTHENED THE HIGH WITH
RESPECT TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

SURFACE MAP HAS A TROF FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

RADAR SHOWS TSRA IN NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER TROF...MOVING NORTH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE TROF.  TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY LAKE ERIE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS.  FARTHER
SOUTH...OVER MOST OF ILN CWA...CU HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT NO TSRA YET.
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT TSRA WILL POP BY LATE
EVENING...SO ILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER MOST OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT 30 POPS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST...
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE
SAME...WITH 20 POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY.  FOR WEDNESDAY...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
COOL AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE TSRA.  ON THURSDAY...
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH IN FRONT OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CONTACTS THE
GULF WILL WARRANT CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPS:  WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT
US FROM REACHING 90.

EXTENDED:  MAINLY DRY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER HIGH BECOMES
ENTRENCHED.  BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH LAKES.

.ILN...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-121145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
550 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  THE THREAT AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER NORTH OF I-70.  SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.  IF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS THEN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

 TIPTON