Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

MODELS SIMILAR WITH UPR LO OVR UPR MS VLY PIVOTING NE TO NR LS AND
ELONGATING BY 00Z. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDCG LO PRES OVR WI WITH
SWD TRAILNG CDFNT NR IN/IL STATE LINE THRU SE MO. MODERATE INSTBY
HAS DVLPD AHD OF THIS FNT WHERE BREAKS IN CLDS EXIST AND LWR TO MID
60S DWPTS HAVE ADVCTD NWD.

TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALONG ACRS WRN IN AHD OF CDNT IN AXIS OF LO LVL
CNVRGC AND MODERATE INSTBY. XPCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONT
TO DVLP AND SHIFT E INTO CWA DURG LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SB CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. MODEL INSTBY TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCRS. MAX DELTA THETA-E DIFF ARND 23 DEGS AND WBZ HGTS
AROUND 8500FT WL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SOME SHEAR
EXISTS AND STORM TYPE WL FALL INTO BORDERLINE SUPERCELLULAR. EXPECT
MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THESE
SVR-WX PARAMETERS WEAKEN OVR EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. WL CONT LKLY
POPS ACRS ENTIRE REGION WITH THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL SVR ACRS THE
W THIS EVE.

CDFNT TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TNGT WITH DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
THE REGION. HAVE STAYED AOA GUID TEMPS TNGT.

IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLO PTN...ELONGATED UPR TROF TO SHIFT E THRU
GRTLKS MON INTO TUE. GOOD PVA DVLPS LATE MON AFTN INTO MON EVE
WITH VORT MAX ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF. SECONDARY TROF
AXIS WHICH WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE LO LVL CONVRGC TO DROP SE THRU
OH MON EVE. WL CONT LO POP CHC ACRS THE E ERLY AND THEN LATE
AFTN IN THE W DUE TO SECONDARY TROF AXIS. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY
START OUT AS PC BUT SHUD QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY CLDY. WL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLDY SKY COND. TEMP WISE...PREFER VALUES A LTL COOLER THAN
MAV GUID.

WL END CHC OF SHWRS TUE MRNG WITH UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTING E. SFC
HI PRES BEGINS TO BLD IN FROM NW IN 5H CONFLUENT ZONE. SFC HI PRES
TO DOMINATE THE WX TUE NIGHT INTO THU. THIS WL PROVIDE COOL BUT
DRY WX. THE NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP SHUD ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST CHC ALONG AND S OF OH RIVER.

.ILN...NONE.

RANDALL

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-201115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-202200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.

RYAN