Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SVR
TS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT TIL 01Z FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FCST AREA.  THE BULK OF THE SVR WX SHOULD STAY IN THE WATCH
AREA...BUT HIGH CAPES WILL CAUSE A CONCERN NEAR BNDRYS THAT SET UP
FROM ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  AFTER HIGH LIKELY
POPS EARLY IN WATCH AREA...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL AND SLIGHT IN SOUTH LATE.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH WBZ(S) ABOVE 11 KFT.

OTHERWISE...A RATHER HOT 4TH WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.  HI(S) ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  DEW POINTS ARE
HIGHER IN SW AND SINCE LOWS WILL LIKELY BE 71 OR HIGHER TONIGHT
COUPLED WITH HI(S) EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 100 TOMORROW...WILL
CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE
WARNING SINCE TODAYS HI(S) DID NOT QUITE MEET CRITERIA THERE AND
PCPN COULD HAMPER SATURDAY AS WELL.

FOR SATURDAY...ETA AND GFS NOW BOTH KEEPING MAIN CLD FRNT NORTH OF
FCST AREA.  HOWEVER...UPPER AIR DIVG AND LL CONV DO SWING FATHER
SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AND INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH...ALONG WITH
UNCERTAIN POSITION OF LEFT-OVER BNDRYS.   WBZ(S) ABOVE 11 KFT WITH
MAX-MIN THETAE(S) OF 25-30K SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...THE ETA AND GFS HANG UP BNDRY ACROSS FCST AREA...CONTINUING
THE RISK OF STORMS.

ON EXTENDED...NOT MANY CHANGES BUT LL THICKNESSES REALLY FALL BY END
OF WEEK WITH NEW MODEL RUNS AND WILL LOWER TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE.

.ILN...
SVR TS WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053
OHZ045-046-054>056
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY 8 PM.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

CENTER

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
533 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100
TODAY.  AS A RESULT A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CINCINNATI
(HAMILTON COUNTY).  THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
MAINLY AFTER SUNSET NORTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OHIO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING
AFTERNOON/EVENING THREATS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1052 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.  THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...INCLUDING
CINCINNATI...TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WORSE IN DOWNTOWN
AREAS...WHERE CONCENTRATED AMOUNTS OF CONCRETE AND ASPHALT WILL
PRODUCE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES.

CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE USUALLY
THE FIRST TO SUFFER FROM THE HEAT. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN
EXTREME CASES HEAT STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. FRIENDS...RELATIVES...OR NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON
PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN SUN...OR IN POORLY
VENTILATED AREAS.  BE CAREFUL HOW YOU USE YOUR FANS.  A FAN
POINTED DIRECTLY AT A PERSON MAY CAUSE DEHYDRATION BY REMOVING
MOISTURE FROM THE SKIN.  USE A CIRCULATING FAN INSTEAD TO MOVE
AIR THROUGH THE ROOM.  STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT IF
POSSIBLE.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-042100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WAPAKONETA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AND THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.