Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW BETWEEN BETWEEN KSDF AND KCVG
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PUSHING NORTH INTO WESTERN OHIO OVER TO
LAKE ERIE.  KILN SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG TD BOUNDARY MAINLY
JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER BEFORE MAKING IT NORTH NEAR PORTSMOUTH.

MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN THEY DIFFER BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT.  GFS IS STILL BRINGING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN FA.
IT HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH THE LAST FEW DAYS.  ETA IS STILL DRY.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

AS FOR OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP POPS MENTIONED IN THE WEST FOR THE
EVENING AND LIKELY IN THE EAST.  SYNOPTICALLY THE MID LEVEL TROF IS
GOING TO A NEGATIVE TILT AND GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT IS TAKING PLACE.
HOWEVER THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE TD BOUNDARY
ALONG SOUTHERN FA BORDER.  THINK CONVECTION HAS A CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE IN THE EAST...WHERE A LITTLE MORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
TAKING PLACE.

MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHERE IT SEEMS A
COUPLE DEGREES TO COOL.

.ILN...NONE.
 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-
070>072-077-078-152035-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE TRI-STATE...MIAMI AND
WHITEWATER VALLEYS AND MOST OF CENTRAL OHIO HAS BEEN CLEARED...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.  THUS THE WATCH
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLEARED FROM THE
WATCH.  BASICALLY...THE WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM MAYSVILLE TO HILLSBORO TO CHILLICOTHE TO
LOGAN.  HOWEVER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

 TIPTON

KYZ097>100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-152125-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
456 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION...HOWEVER
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING NORTHEAST KENTUCKY HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE MAYSVILLE/PORTSMOUTH/VANCEBURG AREA.

RESIDENCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS REDEVELOPING THROUGH
7 PM.

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