Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2003

HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE GIVING THE AREA ITS FIRST REAL DOSE OF
SUMMER INTO THE WEEKEND.  ETA SHOWING SUMMER-LIKE INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE IMPETUS FOR LIFT DURING MAX HEATING
THOUGH.  ABOUT THE ONLY FOCUS THAT APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE TODAY AND
FRIDAY IS THE RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY AND ANY OUTFLOWS THAT MAY
RESULT FROM ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.  PLAN TO
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS SHOWING A FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...POSSIBLY ENDING PRECIPITATION BY DAYBREAK
MON. PLAN TO REDUCE OR ELIMINATE POPS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

MARINE: JUST NOT SEEING THE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS EARLIER
ANTICIPATED ON THE NRN WATERS. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE STRONGER WINDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WW3 DATA SHOWS SEAS
NO GREATER THAN 4 FT TODAY. WILL THEREFORE DISCONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND GO WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES TODAY. SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUN NIGHT. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE NRN
WATERS. W TO NW FLOW TO FOLLOW ON MON BEHIND THE FRONT.

FCSTID =   31
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
ILM   89  70  87  72 /  20  20  20  20
LBT   91  68  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
FLO   91  69  91  70 /  20  20  20  20
MYR   85  71  84  72 /  20  20  20  20

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: RAN
MARINE: TRA

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-080430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-080330-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1034 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2003

...THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM

JAQ