Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
205 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

SHORT TERM: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SFC PATTERN AS BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL MIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI.
BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FLATTENS OUT. RESULT WILL BE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THU AND FRI...AND PERHAPS A FEW MORE TSTMS DUE TO
DECREASING SUBSIDENCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY MID AND UPPER 70S.

EXTENDED SAT THROUGH WED: 00Z GFS IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE LATTER
PANELS OF THE 00Z ETA W/ REGARD TO FRONTAL POSN...BUT IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL STICK CLOSER TO HPC/S
DEPICTION W/ THE STNRY FRONT NEAR THE COAST SAT/SUN DISSIPATING
MON/TUE. GFS SHOWS BEST OMEGA ALONG THE COAST SAT WHICH IS PROBABLY
WHEN THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR. BEST SUPPORT W AND N OF HERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EFP. THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF WILL
LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUN. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DROP INTO THE
TN VALLEY DURING MON. HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING W FROM THE ATLC TUE...KEEPING THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE MS AND TN VALLEYS. SMALL POP MON...BUT AT THIS POINT
AM PREFER TO KEEP TUE-WED DRY...BUT WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP INLAND
TO BLEND W/ ADJACENT OFFICES. TEMPS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST ON SAT
DEPENDING WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP...OTHERWISE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO OPRNL NUMBERS. OVERALL...TEMPS A FEW DEGS EITHER
SIDE OF CLIMO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EFP.

MARINE: HI PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL PRODUCE SW FLOW THROUGH
FRI. A BIT OF A SURGE EXPECTED FRI AND GRAD TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
SFC FRONT MOVING INTO WRN CAROLINAS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-5
FT WITH THIS SURGE. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
EXPECT TO SEE SW FLOW BECOME VRBL FOR A PERIOD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
RETURN OF MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SUN...THEN LIGHT SE-S MON.
SEAS 4-5 FT SAT...SUBSIDING TO 3 FT SAT NIGHT/SUN...THEN 3 FT OR
LESS SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

FCSTID =  33

ILM  77 92 77 90 /  20 30 30 40
FLO  75 92 75 90 /  20 30 30 40
LBT  75 92 75 90 /  20 30 30 40
MYR  78 87 78 89 /  20 30 30 40

CRM/SRP

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-091315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE GREAT PEE DEE...LITTLE
PEE DEE...AND LUMBER RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT
ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOEHLER