Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
329 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

SHORT TERM THROUGH THU NIGHT: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER SERN SC IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AN AXIS OF HIGH
CAPES AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ILM CWA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS TO THE S.

CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO THE EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO
DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TO THE W IS STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION.

WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND...WILL CARRY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S...WHICH IS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY AT.

DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
SEA BREEZE DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUE AND CHANCE WED AND THU.

BIG CONCERN BOTH TUE AND WED IS THE HEAT INDEX. WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD APPROACH 105 DEGREES. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS
POINT...SINCE IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL REACH/EXCEED 105
FOR 3 HRS OR MORE. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IN ZONES HOWEVER.

EXTENDED FRI THROUGH MON: AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF AT THE ONSET OF THE
EFP WILL WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND. THE TROF WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION DURING FRI...THEN OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING.
DPROG/DT PLOTS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND IN FROPA
W/ THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE COAST AND WASHING OUT DURING
SAT. THINK THE DEEPEST MSTR ASSOC W/ THE FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF
THE COAST BY 12Z SAT...HOWEVER GIVEN SLOWER TREND WILL HOLD ONTO A
SMALL POP FOR SAT MORNING. BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE BACK
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP CHANCES
SUN-MON. FOLLOWED ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE TO OPRNL
MAX/MINS AND CLIMO.

MARINE: BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FLOW WILL TIGHTEN AT TIMES IN RESPONSE TO INLAND
TROF WITH SPEEDS TO AVERAGE 15 KT...UP TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER THU-THU NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
THINK SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE MET THU NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. VEERING AND DIMINISHING FLOW ON SAT W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FCSTID =  36
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM  76 92 76 92 /  40 20 20 30
FLO  74 94 74 93 /  40 20 20 30
LBT  74 93 74 92 /  40 20 20 30
MYR  76 89 76 89 /  40 20 20 30

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

SHORT TERM: JAQ
EXTENDED/MARINE: SRP

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE AID
OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CAPE FEAR AND THE GREAT PEE
DEE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED BY NWS
WILMINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HEAT INDEX READINGS COULD REACH 105 DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

HOEHLER