Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO IDENTIFY PREV DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

COLD FRONT JUST THIS SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 13Z.  WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A RESPECTABLE CURL ALOFT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND
EXPECT IT TO PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT TO MOVE THAT PORTION OF THE FRONT
E RATHER THAN MOVE THE SOUTHERN PORTION SE.  THIS FRONT IS STILL
STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WILL HELP MOVE IT SE.  FROPA
DURING THE EVENING APPEARS REASONABLE.

STILL LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE AROUND MAX HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...SO LIKELY POPS IN GOOD SHAPE.  MAX TEMPS IN THE 85-90
RANGE ALSO WELL ON TRACK SO NO ZFP UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...WINDS WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT THE BUOYS THIS
MORNING WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT. SURF REPORTS INDICATING WAVES 2 TO 3
FT THIS MORNING AND 06Z WAVE WATCH SHOWING SEAS FALLING TO 3 FEET BY
AT THIS TIME. SO ONLY CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE TO INITIALIZE
WINDS AND LOWER SEAS 1 FT.

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: RAS
MARINE: HAWKINS

300 AM EDT:
PUBLIC: ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER GEORGETOWN COUNTY SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. BELIEVE MODELS ARE A BIT FAST MOVING COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FOR THIS MORNINGS ZONE PACKAGE WILL HOLD OFF
COASTAL FROPA TIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...THEN SCT POPS TIL MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES NOT AS DEEP
AS SEEN RECENTLY. STILL LOOKING AT A DRY WEEKEND. GFS/ETA CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING IN A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WITH NEXT HI PRES. MRF/ECMWF ALSO
REASONABLY CONSISTENT AT THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PD. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP IT DRY THRU THEN.

MARINE: WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLIER...WINDS HAVE
VEERED A BIT MORE TO THE W AND HAVE DIMINISHED IN SPEED
CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS A RESULT.

WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE TO THE SW DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...WITH A NLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. A GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN.

FCSTID = 40
ILM   88  66  84  61  /  60  40   0   0
LBT   87  63  83  59  /  60  30   0   0
FLO   88  65  84  60  /  60  30   0   0
MYR   86  67  83  62  /  60  40   0   0

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: KREITNER
MARINE: JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-202030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALSO...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PEE DEE
RIVER. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED BY NWS
WILMINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER WILL CONTINUE ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS AND DAILY RIVER AND LAKE SUMMARIES
ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

HAWKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1142 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0656 PM    1 NE LAKE VIEW            SC   WIND DAMAGE
06/19/03   DILLON                         TREES DOWN

DRH