Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

SHOWERS AND SOON TO BE THUNDER BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AT
TIME. TAIL END OF H5 TROUGH AND ITS COLD TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
AREA LATE AFTN. STILL LOOKING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN
STRONG WIND AND HAIL.

COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE E OF THE AREA 03-06Z ENDING THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION.

WEAK RIDGING ON FRI AND SO DRY AND SEASONABLE.

COLD FRONT SHARPENING TO OUR W FRI NIGHT AND SAT. STRONG WAA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITH H8 WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT AND H5 WIND NR 70 KT.
STRONG MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN.

OMEGA FIELDS IMPRESSIVE...WITH TWO BULLSEYE. THERE MAY BE A BATCH
OF DYING CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING. THEN A LULL AS THE ATMOSPHERE GETS JUICED UP FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY TURN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST SAT EVE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW.

HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF
LOW PRESSURE SUDDENLY APPEARING PER GFS MON AND MOVING OVERHEAD MON
NIGHT AND TUE WITH A BULLSEYE OF OMEGA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS MRF AND CAN NOT SEE THAT MUCH MOISTURE
RETURNING N THAT QUICKLY. DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY MON THROUGH TUE.

WED AND THU...BERMUDA HIGH TRYING TO FINALLY MAKE AN APPEARANCE AS
IT STRUGGLES TO BUILD W. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
NW. ADDED SMALL POPS FOR WED TO BETTER FIT WITH CAE AND MHX. SMALL
POPS FOR THU AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE A CRAWL IN OUR DIRECTION
FROM NW...BEING SLOWED BY ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MARINE:WIND FIELDS OVER COASTAL WATERS SLOW TO COME UP BUT TREND IN
PG CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MARGINAL SCA FOR NRN WATERS THIS EVENING.
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPS OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY WEST WINDS RELAXING THROUGH FRI EVENING AND GRADUALLY
BACKING WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT SAT. PG AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SHOULD INDUCE SCA CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT UNTIL FRONT SWEEPS
OFF THE COAST SAT EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO REGION
SUN/MON WITH WINDS BECOMING SSELY BY LATE MON. GFS NOW DEPICTING
ANOTHER SYSTEM/SURFACE LOW APPROACHING REGION LATE TUE WHICH COULD
STRENGTHEN SWLY FLOW.

ILM 059/080 065/085 5025
LBT 058/081 064/085 5025
FLO 058/082 064/086 5025
MYR 060/081 065/084 5025

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
.SC...NONE

PUBLIC:DIGIORGI
MARINE:RWA

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-292200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE FEAR, GREAT PEE DEE
AND LUMBER RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

DIGIORGI