Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

SEA BREEZE FRONT AND SFC TROF INLAND HAVE BEEN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTN. EXPECT THINGS TO QUIETEN DOWN AFTER
SUNSET BUT WILL HANG ON TO LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING 500 MB
VORT MAX LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE MON AS THE
SFC TROF MOVES VERY LITTLE AND WE REMAIN IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PER
SPC SWODY2...THE ENTIRE CWA FALLS UNDER SLIGHT RISK MON WITH
WINDS/HAIL MAIN THREATS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUE
EVE...THEN REMOVE TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND KICKS
THE SFC TROF/LOW NE. SHARP S/WV DIGGING SE WILL CROSS WED WILL
WARRANT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS SFC WINDS WNW AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LACKING. THU-FRI CHANCE POPS BASED ON APPROACH OF SFC
FRONT WHICH MAY ACTUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY FRI. FOR NOW WILL
CARRY 30 POPS BOTH DAYS.

MARINE: SW WINDS INTO WED AFTN...THEN BECOMING WNW AS SFC LOW/TROF
MOVE OFF THE COAST. WILL INCREASE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING
GRAD AND CROSSING S/WV WED AFTN BUT KEEP BELOW SCA. BACK TO SW
BRIEFLY THU...THEN S/WV WILL PUSH SFC TROF TO THE COAST FRI AND
WINDS BECOME W. SEAS IN 3-4 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FCSTID =  33
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM   67  83  67  80  /  30  50  50  30
LBT   64  83  64  81  /  40  50  50  30
FLO   65  84  65  82  /  40  50  50  30
MYR   68  80  68  77  /  30  50  50  30

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

CRM/JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-251700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1107 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG ALL EAST FACING BEACHES
TODAY.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE
WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST...AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR AT
ELIZABETHTOWN WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

JAQ

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-252100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON
OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM

JAQ

SCZ017-251800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN MARLBORO COUNTY...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLENHEIM...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BENNETTSVILLE....MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. OTHER CITIES IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE CLIO AND DUNBAR.

THIS STORM CONTAINS FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
IS LIKELY PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

RADAR IS ALSO INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM...
WITH RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR. THIS MUCH RAIN
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NC.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0227 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    2 NW FAIRMONT             NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/25/03   ROBESON

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0227 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0225 PM    2 NW FAIRMONT             NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/25/03   ROBESON

43/JAQ