Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING WORKING
ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...EXPECT RENEWED ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW.

FCSTID = 40
ILM   83  70  87  70 /  70  50  40  20
LBT   82  67  85  67 /  70  40  50  30
FLO   85  68  87  69 /  60  40  50  30
MYR   81  71  82  71 /  50  50  40  20

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.

REK

------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS---------------------

PUBLIC: STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE RIDING NE
UP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. IF THIS KEEPS
UP...THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES OF
NC AND SC. HOWEVER...SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE CWA BASED ON FAVORABLE LLWS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. SPC ALSO
HAS US IN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY FOR TODAY SO CANNOT RULE OUT
ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. HAVE JUST UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE
TORNADO WATCH.

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT AS SEVERE WX MAY SOON BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS MOST COUNTIES TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER
THE INLAND AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. ETA AND GFS3 BUFKIT SHOWS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP TODAY. SOUTHERNMOST SC COUNTIES MAY BE
SPARED THE WORST OF IT. KEEPING CHANCE POPS TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT
AND SLT CHANCE THEREAFTER. SEE US STAYING IN A WARM...MOIST SWLY
FLOW REGIME THRU THE OUTLOOK PD. NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS FROM
THU ONWARD...BUT SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO SLT CHC POPS FROM THEN
THRU MON.

MARINE: WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING THIS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL REACH 5-6
FT THERE BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WENT
WITH AN ETA/GFS BLEND AGAIN FOR WINDS OUT THRU 84 HOURS. WAVEWATCH
SEAS AT POINTS ILM01/ILM02 LOOK REASONABLE INSIDE 20 NM EXCEPT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE MODEL BUILDS THEM
TO 8 FT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE WATERS. ANY SECOND OR THIRD WAVES OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY
COULD PROVIDE MORE COVERAGE. THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO FEATURE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SCT SHRA/TSRA MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

PUBLIC: REK
MARINE: TRA

NCZ087-096-099-100-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS EVENING AND FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

REK

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-070200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
515 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS EVENING AND FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ILM

KREITNER