Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2003

SHORT WAVES PASSING N AND JUST S OF AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST. WENT WITH
HIGH CHANCE N FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO LIKELY SC PORTION OF CWA.

WENT WITH GFS MODEL FOR SUN...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WEDGE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY. ETA TOO QUICK IN BREAKING DOWN THIS FEATURE.

HIGH PRES ALOFT BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON WHILE
SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA ON MON AND
BY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND APPROACH OF STRONG
SHORT WAVE/WARM FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUE AND WED SO ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED. A FOCUSING MECHANISM COMING IN
THE FORM OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NW GETTING CLOSE ENOUGH
LATE WED AND SO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY BEGINNING WED NIGHT. FRONT
WILL ORIENT ITSELF W TO E AS IT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH AND S OF
THE AREA ON FRI...BEFORE DISSIPATING. KEPT SAT DRY WITH HIGH PRES
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM 059/072 051/075 5112
LBT 056/073 050/076 5112
FLO 058/074 052/076 6113
MYR 060/073 054/074 6112

MARINE: COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT...
SIMILAR TO THE ETA/S POSITION. THINK THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SEE
SOME OF THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER EASTERN
NC. WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP LATE SUN AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY MON
RESULTING IN NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MON AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE. RATHER STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU WITH SOME STRONG LOW LEVELS
WINDS IN PLACE AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT (EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRI). HOWEVER...PLAN
ON KEEPING WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: JAQ

NCZ087-096-099-100-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KREITNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0740 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0738 PM    MAXTON                    NC   1.00 IN HAIL
05/03/03   ROBESON                        REPORT FROM SKYWARN.

0730 PM    ORRUM                     NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/03/03   ROBESON                        SPOTTER REPORT ON BROAD
                                          RIDGE ROAD BETWEEN ORRUM
                                          AND PROCTORVILLE.

0722 PM    PEMBROKE                  NC   0.88 IN HAIL
05/03/03   ROBESON                        PUBLIC REPORT VIA 911
                                          CENTER.

RAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0744 PM EDT SAT MAY 03 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0741 PM    LUMBERTON                 NC   1.75 IN HAIL
05/03/03   ROBESON                        HAIL FALLING AT 911
                                          CENTER.

RAN