Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA DURING SAT. AN
IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED SHRA/TSRA ALL THE WAY ACROSS TN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. 12Z
MODELS OMEGA FIELDS NOT MATCHING ALL THAT WELL W/ THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION. WILL SEE WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SPREAD IN FROM THE W...A
LITTLE BETTER TOWARD 12Z W/ THE AREA UNDER LFQ OF A NW-SE ORIENTED
UPPER JET. WILL HOLD CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND INTO SAT W/ THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH AND SOME SUPPORT ALOFT. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
IN PLACE UNTIL SAT EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSRA.

BY SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING A S/WV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC REGION
AND PUSH THE FRONT WELL S OF THE ILM FA WHILE INDUCING LOW
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE NC COAST. THE LOW WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE
MID-ATLC DURING SUN AS A RIDGE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST W/ LITTLE
EFFECT HERE. FAVORED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
PERIODS. BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SAT AND SUN.

EXTENDED MON THROUGH FRI: DURING MON THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY. SE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOLER ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES THOUGH WOULD THINK THE PEE DEE
AREA WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. WARMER TEMPS TUE W/ MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

THE EXTENDED PICTURE THEN BECOMES MUDDY FOR THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME
GIVEN GFS INCONSISTENCIES AT 00Z. AT THIS POINT I HAVE NOT MADE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST. FORTUNATELY THE LATTER PANELS OF
THE 12Z GFS LOOK SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS THOUGH THERE IS MUCH
SPECULATION ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE KEPT MAINLY A
20/30 POP IN PLACE UNTIL THERE IS BETTER RESOLUTION.

MARINE: OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS SFC LOW E OF HATTERAS CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.  SEAS STILL 3-4 FT
AT THE BUOYS...WITH MOST OF THAT STILL MAKING IT TO THE SURF ZONE N
OF CAPE FEAR.  DIFFERENT STORY IN SOUTHERN WATERS AS USUAL.

PERIOD OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WX AHEAD.  COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE
SAT MORNING...BUT PUSH BEHIND IT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.  SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS.   MODELS LACKING SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN
LATER PERIODS...ESP THE GFS.  WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF
WINDS VEERING SE MON...AND SW FOR TUE AND WED.  COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH WED...OR MAYBE NOT.  HAVE SEEN 120 HR POSITIONS ANYWHERE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...SO WILL ALLOW
THOSE DIFFERENCES TO WORK THEMSELVES OUT WITHOUT FLIP-FLOPPING OUR
FCST TOO MUCH.

WW3 SEAS OK...BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR TUE AS GFS WINDS LOOK A BIT
TOO STRONG.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...29
ILM   64  78  56  75 / 30  30  20  20
LBT   62  79  54  75 / 30  30  20  20
FLO   62  81  56  77 / 30  30  30  30
MYR   65  78  58  73 / 30  30  30  30

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: PFAFF
MARINE: RAS

NCZ087-096-099-100-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-021200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

.SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HOEHLER