Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES REMAINS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A COLD
FRONT GETTING A DECENT PUSH NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND AND JERSEY COAST.
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS POINTED OUT BY HPC AND
OTHER OFFICES.  THEREFORE AM TEMPTED TO TAKE MODELS WITH A GRAIN OF
SALT TODAY...HOWEVER THE VIGOROUS AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
KEEPS ME FROM DISCARDING ANYTHING TOO QUICKLY.

GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO HAVE NOT
STRAYED FAR.  MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE FAIRLY CLOSE TO 17-18Z
DEWPOINTS...SO GONE PRETTY MUCH WITH THAT IDEA FOR TONIGHT.  WILL
ALSO CARRY SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING.

DECENT SUPPLY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WED AND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL JUST N OF THE CWA.  WILL GO WITH 20 POP ALONG AND
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE...LEAVING THE IMMEDIATE COAST DRY.
FOLLOWED THE SAME THEME FOR THU...BUT MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EVEN MORE
QUESTIONABLE.  MAX TEMPS WED-THU IN THE LOW 80S MOST LOCATIONS BUT
OPENED UP 6-7 DEG BETWEEN FLO/MYR.

EXTENDED:  APPROACHING UPPER TROF AND SFC FRONT KEEP US IN CHC POPS
FOR FRI-SAT.  LOW PRES OFF THE COAST IS A WILD CARD...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.  DECENT SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH
ONLY CLOUDS TO REALLY HOLD TEMPS BACK...SO WILL BUMP HIGHS A NOTCH
EACH DAY.  COOL HIGH PRES SUN-MON.  WILL TRIM MAX TEMPS BACK TO
UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S COASTAL.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TUE...BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL KEEP IT DRY AND JUST CALL IT
PARTLY CLOUDY.

MARINE: WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING W/ LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 3 FT
SEAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS. TWO MAIN ISSUE TO DEAL W/ THIS FP.
FIRST...A WEAK FRONT SINKING S TONIGHT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE FA
DURING WED. THE FRONT WILL PUSH N WED NIGHT AS A RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST PREVAILS. NEXT ISSUE PERTAINS TO LOW PRES PROGGED TO
MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT/FRI. THE GFS APPEARS TO
BE OVERDONE W/ THE LOW GIVEN THE PATTERN ALOFT...WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE ALSO HAVING A HARD TIME W/ THIS FEATURE. PLAN ON FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO THE ETA...WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE BUT APPEARS A LITTLE
MORE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE PATTERN ALOFT. SHOULD BE A SELY FETCH
(THOUGH NOT ALL THAT STRONG) FOCUSED ON THE SE COAST THU/THU EVENING
WHICH SUPPORTS SEAS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE NOMOGRAM WOULD YIELD. DO
NOT THINK ANY FLAGS WILL BE REQUIRED EVEN W/ THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SAT/SAT EVE TIME FRAME.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM   61  80  61  81 / 10  20  10  20
LBT   60  82  61  82 / 10  20  10  20
FLO   61  83  61  83 / 10  20  10  20
MYR   63  76  62  77 / 10  10  10  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RAS/SRP

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO PRECIPITATION OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WACCAMAW AND CAPE FEAR
RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC.

.DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOEHLER