Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
232 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

PUBLIC: IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WITH SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR GEORGETOWN TO OFF THE COAST AT CAPE FEAR.
AS LINE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING UP IN EASTERN GEORGIA. ETA SHOWING INCREASE
DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AND WITH MOST OF OUR AREA SATURATED FROM TODAYS
FLOODING RAINS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. HPC PLACES THE AREA UNDER
ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP UP THE FLOOD WATCH OVER
NIGHT.

EXTENDED: AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY EXPECT DRY TO
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. AS MRF BRINGS IN A
SWATH OF MOSITURE EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY INCREASE CLOUD
COVER WITH NO PRECIPATION AT THIS TIME.

MARINE: WINDS HAVE BEEN CRANKING AT FRYING PAN EARLY THIS AFTN...W/
STRONG INFLOW INTO THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THINK GALE DURATION WOULD BE MINIMAL W/ CONVECTION
LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL STILL NEED
TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE S TO SW
TONIGHT. SEAS ARE 10 TO 12 FT AT FRYING PAN...PROBABLY 8 TO 10 FT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT W/ THE FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST
BY TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND TO CONTINUE TO VEER ALL THE WAY
AROUND THE COMPASS TO THE E BY TUE. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE.

FCSTID =    7
ILM   63  78  56  74 /  70  40  10   0
LBT   59  79  54  74 /  70  40  10   0
FLO   59  79  54  75 /  70  40  10   0
MYR   63  74  56  73 /  70  40  10   0

.ILM...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
NCZ087...NCZ096>097...NCZ099>101.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.

SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
SCZ017...SCZ023>024...SCZ032>034...SCZ039...SCZ046.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.

HAWKINS

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-202215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MAY
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE SATURATED GROUNDS FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINED AREA. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE FOR THE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE BIGGEST THREAT BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL...MAJOR RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THEIR BANKS. SEE FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY NWS WILMINGTON NC FOR SPECIFICS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

HAWKINS

NCZ096-097-099>101-SCZ034-046-202015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
140 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 66 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...AND THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA HAS DIMINISHED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON SOME
ROADWAYS.  A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RAS

NCZ097-100-101-202330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
524 PM EST THU MAR 20 2003

...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BOLIVIA AND WILMINGTON
AREAS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE BURGAW AND HAMPSTEAD AREAS
BETWEEN 530 PM AND 6 PM.  HAIL A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A HALF INCH OR MORE
OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ISSUED BY YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

RAS