Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
214 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003

.DISCUSSION...
TWO WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE FIRST EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ON THE FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 00Z...AND WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF THE COAST BY 04Z OR SO. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE AND A MOS BLEND LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE
NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS.

THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WANTS TO TAKE SHAPE ABOUT 12 HOURS
FASTER THAN IT APPEARED YESTERDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ALSO FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A WELL DEFINED COASTAL
TROUGH COULD BE INVOLVED. WILL STILL GO WITH THE IDEA THAT THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENT WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY RANGING FROM LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND. 12Z GFS SHOWS A HYBRID MILLER A/B SYSTEM WITH THE PARENT LOW
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHILE NEW LOW PRESSURE FORMS JUST
OFFSHORE AND STREAKS UP THE COASTAL TROUGH. DESPITE THE FACT IT
SHOULD RAIN SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND...TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS
STILL IN QUESTION AND HAVE HELD POPS TO 50 PERCENT FOR NOW.

00Z MRF TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL LOOKS TO HAVE RESOLUTION
DIFFICULTIES THAT FAR OUT AND DOES NOT APPEAR VERY REALISTIC WITH THE
STORM TRACK OR INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUGGESTS SOMETHING
WILL BE IN THE AREA...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS FOR DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...
NEED ANOTHER BUOY TO TELL HOW STRONG THE WIND BLOWS.  FPSN7 SHOWS
SOLID GALE...WHILE INTERMITTENT REPORTS FROM 41013 SHOW GUSTS JUST
REACHING GALE FORCE.  HOWEVER WATER TEMPS THERE IN THE LOWER
70S...WHILE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE MOST
PART. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SST IMAGERY SHOWS OUTER REACHES OF SURF
CITY TO CAPE FEAR LEG MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  MIGHT HOLD ON
TO GALE THERE...BUT WOULD MAKE A SERIOUS NEAR SHORE ALLOWANCE...
WHILE SCA WILL COVER LOCATIONS S OF CAPE FEAR.  SEAS CURRENTLY NEAR
9 FT AT FPSN7...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE
CWF WILL MAX SEAS AT 8-11 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH 6-9 FT
ELSEWHERE.

WINDS TO SHIFT W BY 06Z...REMAINING IN SCA TERRITORY INTO THU
MORNING.  SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH OFFSHORE FETCH.
QUITE A BENIGN PATTERN THU NIGHT THRU SAT AS FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS
FROM NW TO NE AND WEDGE BEGINS TO SET UP.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM.  GFS APPEARS UNABLE TO MAKE
UP ITS MIND BETWEEN MILLER TYPE A AND B.  WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY
WITH CHANGING THE CURRENT FORECAST OR TRYING TO GET TOO DETAILED.

THIS CWF ISSUANCE MIGHT BE HELD UNTIL CLOSER TO 4 PM DEADLINE FOR
ADDITIONAL PILOT BOAT REPORTS...THANX CHS FOR COORD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WILMINGTON     45  58  35  56 / 100   0   0   0
FLORENCE       41  57  34  56 /  50   0   0   0
LUMBERTON      41  56  32  54 /  80   0   0   0
MYRTLE BEACH   45  58  37  56 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NC...GALE WARNING SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.

PUBLIC...TRA
MARINE/FIREWX/AVIATION...RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
256 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-101001-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
256 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF THE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW SPOTS ALONG THE ROADWAY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

SRP