Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

SHORT RANGE TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A VORT AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK W/ AND THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES INLAND. THE WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN FURTHER TONIGHT...BUT NOT MAKING IT TO THE
COAST. THE TROF AXIS WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING AND IT
APPEARS MUCH DRIER AIR...ESP ABV H8 PER TIME-HGT CROSS SECTIONS WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING CHANCES FOR RAFL SAT. WILL
KEEP A SMALL POP PRIMARILY FOR THE COAST FOR SAT. AMS TRANSITIONS BY
SUN AS DEEPER SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER S/WV
DROPPING INTO THE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WILL
NEED TO BRING BACK A SMALL POP SAT NIGHT...THEN CHANCE POPS SUN
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED: MON THROUGH FRI...STALLED COLD FRONT...JUST TO NW... WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO NW ON MON. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGE IN
W...UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE EAST COAST MON INTO
TUE WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING INTO BASE.

TROUGH BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF SE STATES TUE AND TUE NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION/REORIENTATION OF STRONG W RIDGE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW W PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA...ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

GFS INDICATING A TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE N FROM CARIBBEAN ACROSS
FL...AND THEN UP THE SE COAST NEXT FRI NIGHT/SAT...FOLLOWING ALONG A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN BERMUDA RIDGE AND TROFFINESS TO NW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR THE ILM01 FCST POINT. THE SWELL COUPLED W/ SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE W/ RIP CURRENT PROBLEMS FOR THE S FACING BEACHES.

MARINE TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT: SEAS RUNNING BETWEEN 6 TO 7 FT (WHEN THE
WAVE SENSOR HAS WORKED) AT FRYING PAN W/ SPEEDS 20 TO 25 KT. PLAN ON
CONTINUING W/ A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT
OUGHT TO MAKE CONDITIONS VERY GUSTY. S OR SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FP...HOWEVER THE SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

MARINE MON-WED: SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN W THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS. WEAK GRAD SHOULD YIELD WINDS 15 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

FCSTID =  29

ILM  73 89 72 87 /  50 20 20 30
FLO  71 91 71 89 /  50 10 20 30
LBT  71 90 70 88 /  50 10 20 30
MYR  73 86 73 84 /  50 20 20 30

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.

PFAFF/DIGIORGI

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-120200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA ND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE SOUTH FACING
BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND MAY HELP TO GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GREAT PEE DEE RIVER. SEE
THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NWS WILMINGTON NC FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS ALREADY BEEN ACTIVATED.

DIGIORGI

SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-120100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
258 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE STRENGTHENING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AT MID AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA BEFORE 600 PM.

ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ACTIVELY MONITOR THE RADAR
AND SHOULD ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE...WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATED
WEATHER INFORMATION.

DIGIORGI

SCZ023-032-039-112345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...

AT 700 PM...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
DARLINGTON...FLORENCE AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES BETWEEN 700 AND 800
PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE LAMAR...CADES...CLAUSSEN...
EFFINGHAM...FLORENCE...JOHNSONVILLE...SCRANTON AND TIMMONSVILLE

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR INTENSIFICATION.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE...REQUIRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS...SO STAY TUNED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP:

DIGIORGI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0740 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0737 PM    FLORENCE                  SC   67 MPH WIND GUST
07/11/03   FLORENCE                       REPORTED BY ASOS AT
                                          FLORENCE AIRPORT.

RAN