Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
354 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

MAIN FCST CONCERN HAS BEEN TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND ATTEMPTING TO DETERMINE HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WL LINGER
INTO THE DAY.

IT HAS BEEN A PRETTY CRAZY NIGHT AS SVR STORMS PULSED UP. WL KEEP
POPS IN FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVITY
FARTHER BACK OVER CENTRAL KS. THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND
BOTH MESO-ETA AND WS ETA BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH CWA.

TDAY-TNGHT: SFC RIDGE WL SETTLE OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING
PLENTY OF SUN. ATTM IT APPEARS SOME DRIER AIR WL WORK INTO THE CWA
TNGHT WHICH MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SO WL LEAVE FOR DAY SHIFT
TO LOOK AT.

TUES-WED: TUES SHUD BE A FAIRLY WARM DAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES AS SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
THE AREA WL BE UNDER W-NW FLOW ALOFT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE
ON BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WED. SINCE
MODELS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE IS SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PANNING OUT. THIS COLD FRONT IS BEING PUSHED
THROUGH BY A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON PRECIP AS FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE BEST
DYNAMICS STAY NORTHEAST OF CWA. ISENTROPICS SHOW RISING SURFACES BUT
AT THE SAME TIME GOOD DOWNGLIDE. FOR NOW WL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE DRY.
IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE.

THURS-SUN:
THE NEW 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECM. SO AT LEAST THROUGH FRI THERE IS FINALLY SOME CONFIDENCE IN
FCST. BY 12Z THURS SFC RIDGE SHUD BE PLANTED OVER CWA, ALLOWING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A GOOD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SEEMS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR FRI, AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING GETS GOING. SINCE THERE IS
SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS, WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP TEMPS THURS
AND FRI. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES SAT AND SUN,
MODELS DO AGREE ON GENERAL UPPER PATTERN WITH TROUGH OVER EAST,
LEAVING CWA IN BROAD NW FLOW ALOFT. SINCE BULK OF UPPER ENERGY STAYS
EAST OF AREA, WL KEEP DRY FCST.

FCSTID = 7/LAWSON
ICT   76  53  83  61 /  40   5   0  10
HUT   75  52  84  62 /  40   5   0  10
EWK   75  52  83  61 /  30   5   0  10
EQA   75  52  83  61 /  30   5   0  10
WLD   77  54  83  62 /  40   5   0  10
RSL   73  51  85  60 /  40   5   0  10
GBD   74  52  86  58 /  50   5   0  10
SLN   74  51  84  62 /  30   5   0  10
MPR   75  52  83  61 /  30   5   0  10
CFV   78  53  81  60 /  30   5   0  10
CNU   75  51  81  60 /  20   5   0  10
K88   75  51  81  60 /  20   5   0  10

.ICT...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR ZONES KSZ052>053...
KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG A HUTCHINSON TO WICHITA TO
WINFIELD LINE.

A STRONG UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED SEVERE STORMS, PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON