Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CST TUE MAR 25 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MORNING PRECIP AND THEN PRECIP CHCS THU/FRI.

TWO AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA TO WORRY ABOUT THIS MORNING. CEN AREA OF SHRA
ENHANCED BY WEAK MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NEXT AREA
IN SRN KS....SFC BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT 850/925H
CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED OVER SRN KS.  SHRA/TSRA FORMING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE ELVATED LIS AROUND -2.   SO WILL HAVE TO
INCLUDE SOME MORNING WORDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SHRA CHCS DECREASE AS THE AFTN GOES ALONG...SO WILL
DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT SERN KS WHERE SOME SHRA MAY LINGER. WK
CAA TODAY WILL DECREASE TEMPS FROM YESTERDAY...BUT GUID NUMBERS
STILL IN THE LOWER 60S AND WILL FOLLOW.

TNGT/WED: BY TNGT, SFC TROUGH WL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF CWA, WITH
WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD. AS THIS HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST, A GOOD WARM
ADVECTION DOWN SLOPE SITUATION WL SET UP FOR WED. BY WED SOME CIRRUS
SHUD BE WORKING INTO AREA AS NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE WEST.
WED SHUD BE PRETTY WARM, WITH UPPER 60S OVER E TO LOW 70S OVER
CENTRAL KS. FAIRLY GUSTY SW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GET GOING WED
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHUD FURTHER PROMOTE GOOD MIXING.

THURS-THUR NGHT: THURS SHUD BE A WARM WINDY DAY ACROSS AREA, WITH
SFC LOW OVER GENERALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, PLACING CWA IN STRONG
SW FLOW. SFC FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE MOVE THURS AFTERNOON. WL BEGIN
POPS OVER CENTRAL KS THURS LATE AFTERNOON, NEAR THE SFC FRONT, BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHUD HOLD OFF TIL THUR NGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT TSRA WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. FOR SVR POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION...BUT SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH POSSIBLE HAIL/WIND...STAY
TUNED.  EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND GFS 1000-850MB THICKNESS SUGGEST
TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.  SO WILL GO ABOVE GUID FOR HIGH TEMPS
THU.

FRI...STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING LIKE A
ROCK LATE THU INTO FRI.  WRAPAROUND PCPN MAY STILL BE AROUND LATE
THU INTO FRI. SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING.  GFS 850H TEMPS AND
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST SHRA MAY CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF
RA/SN ESPECIALLY IN CEN KS.  SO WILL INCLUDE THIS WORDING MAINLY
NORTH OF ICT. BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE TRACE AMOUNTS AS QPF VALUES
ARE VERY LOW.  BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT, FRI WL BE PRETTY COOL,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S, WHICH WL BE A BIG CHANGE FROM THE
70S THURSDAY.

SAT-MON:
BY SAT AFTERNOON THE MIDWEST WL BE UNDER STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUN
AND MON ALSO LOOK DRY, AS NEXT SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, LEAVING CWA UNDER SLGHT RIDGING.

TEMPS WL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE SAT-MON, WITH UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S EXPECTED BY SUN AND MONDAY.

FCSTID =   22 / KETCHAM
ICT   64  37  69  47 /  30   0   0   5
HUT   64  36  70  46 /  20   0   0   5
EWK   64  36  69  45 /  20   0   0   5
EQA   65  37  68  46 /  30   0   0   5
WLD   66  38  70  48 /  30   0   0   5
RSL   63  34  71  44 /  20   0   0   5
GBD   63  35  71  45 /  20   0   0   5
SLN   63  34  69  45 /  10   0   0   5
MPR   64  36  69  45 /  20   0   0   5
CFV   63  39  68  48 /  40   0   0   5
CNU   62  39  67  48 /  40   0   0   5
K88   62  39  67  48 /  40   0   0   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KETCHAM

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
925 PM CST MON MAR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
INTENSIFY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER ON THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS KANSAS
THURSDAY EVENING. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE
BEHAVIOR OF THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS MIDWEEK APPROACHES.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KETCHAM/LAWSON/FRANK