Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003

TNGT:
FOCUS IS ON SVR POTENTIAL TNGT. MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT INSTBY/SHEAR
TO GET STORMS WITH HAIL.  AT THIS POINT...BETTER STORMS ERY SHUD
REMAIN IN THE WRN HALF OF FCST AREA...WITH PCPN MOVG/DVLP NE DURG
THE NIGHT.

TUE-TUE NGT:
UNCLEAR HOW QUICKLY PCPN WL EXIT THE REGION WITH ETA/GFS SHOWING
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN MESOSCALE IMPACT ON LOCATIONS AND MODEL
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO NOT GET FANCY WITH THE GRIDS WITH HIGH
POPS MOST LOCATIONS.  SVR POTENTIAL AGN A FUNCTION OF SHEAR/AND
HEATING AND ITS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE WL GET.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SURGE ON DRYLN LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT S CNTRL KS.  WL NEED TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TNGT.

WED:
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPR LOW WL BE LURKING IN
THE VICINITY...JUST NOT CLEAR WHERE DRY SLOT WL BE.  HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE CLDS

THU-SAT:
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON AMT OF COLD AIR BEHIND SFC
LO THU-FRI...WITH GFS SHOOTING A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND LO. ECMWF
HANGS UP COLD AIR IN NRN PLAINS DUE TO WAVE/LO IN NRN STREAM.  HAVE
GENERALLY SPLIT DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS.  IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY...PCPN
MAY BE OF MIXED VARIETY BEFORE ENDING THU NGT.   GENERALLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO GOING FCST.  RATHER UNCLEAR FCST, COMPLICATED BY RESIDUAL
MSTR AND WEAK IMPULSES IN BOTH NRN/SRN STREAMS. APPRS THAT BOTH
SYSTEMS MAY JUST MISS THE AREA...BUT HAVE SHADED CLDS AND TEMPS
CORRESPONDINGLY.  PLAYING MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON TEMPS...WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON AMT OF CLDS THIS PERIOD.  DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE WL BE SMALLER WITH MORE CLDS OR BIGGER WITH LESS...OF COURSE.

SUN-MON:
APPRS EITHER A WEAK LO/LONG WAVE TROF WL BE MOVG ACRS THE AREA SUN.
MSTR WL LKLY BE LIMITED WITH NW FLOW ACRS SRN PLAINS. THIS SHUD SET
UP DRY/DNSLP FLOW PSBLY LATE SUN AND MOST LKLY MON. HAVE WENT ABV
GUIDANCE MON WITH GFS 1000-850 THICKNESSES SUPPORTING TEMPS EASILY
IN TO THE UPR 60S...PSBLY 70+ W OF I-35.

FCSTID =   17/HOWERTON
ICT   54  64  50  56 /  80  60  80  60
HUT   54  64  50  53 /  80  70  80  70
EWK   54  64  51  54 /  80  70  80  70
EQA   54  64  51  56 /  80  70  80  60
WLD   55  65  48  58 /  80  60  80  50
RSL   53  60  49  51 /  80  70  80  70
GBD   52  62  49  52 /  80  60  80  70
SLN   53  63  51  53 /  80  80  80  70
MPR   54  64  51  54 /  80  70  80  70
CFV   55  67  50  64 /  70  70  80  50
CNU   53  66  52  60 /  80  80  80  70
K88   53  66  52  58 /  80  80  80  70

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, AND FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH THIS DRYLINE, AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS DRYLINE AFTER 3 PM TODAY.
THE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH TOWARD PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT, THE GREATEST RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A WINFIELD TO
COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED RAINFALL, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN
BECOME THE MAIN THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THIS SYSTEM
TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/CO