Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS TDY ARE SHRA CHCS TNGT AND AGAIN ON WED.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO OOZE ACROSS THE CWA ATTM LOCATED
FROM CNU-ICT-LBL...WITH SATL SHOWING SOME ELAVATED AC ACROSS CEN KS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. INTERSTING TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
96 IN ICT AND 83 IN HUT.  LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL S/WV MOVING ACROSS
KS HAS LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS LIMITED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED ALSO.  SO WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, DO NOT SEE
MUCH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT THIS AFTN/EVE.  MAY SEE SOME
ISOLD TSRA IN THE EVENING HOURS AS A WK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NWRN KS. BUT THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AT BEST.  SO
WILL TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO JUST A SLGT CHC AS
WAA IS WEAK AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LIMITED.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO TRICKLE INTO THE AREA POST FRONTAL
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS BACK QUITE A WAYS.  SO WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS UP TNGT BASED ON HIGHER DWPT AIR.

TUES:
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO CREEP SOUTH INTO OK ON TUES WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING IN SRN KS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE BOUNDARY INTO SRN KS...BUT RESDUAL MOISTURE
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SLGT CHC OF SHRA. WILL
KEEP THIS IN SRN KS GRIDS/ZONES WITH THIS IN MIND. BUT CHCS OF ANY
MEASURABLE SHRA IS SMALL.

WED-THU:
NW FLOW ALOFT LEADS TO MORE WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS KS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE IS RATHER
LIMITED, WITH GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS FOR WED
AFTN.  INHERITED POPS LOOK OKAY FOR NOW.  ETA A LITTLE SUSPECT ON
QPF FOR THU...SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW ALSO.

FRI-MON:
NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE EXTENDED WITH WEAK IMPULSES SLATED
TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH. DIFFICULT TO REALLY SEE ANY LARGE PCPN
CHCS THROUGH THE FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD AS SFC FEATURES REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW.  WILL PLACE MAIN EMPHASIS ON
TEMPS.  TEMPS LOOK TO WARM AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER
90S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRYS TO MOVE FURTHER EAST WITH TIME.
SO WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FCSTID =   22 / KETCHAM
ICT   69  91  67  93 /  20  20  10  20
HUT   68  90  66  92 /  20  10  10  20
EWK   69  90  66  92 /  20  10  10  20
EQA   69  90  66  92 /  20  20  10  20
WLD   70  90  67  93 /  20  30  10  20
RSL   65  90  64  92 /  20   5  10  20
GBD   67  90  65  92 /  20  10  10  20
SLN   67  90  65  92 /  20  10  10  20
MPR   69  90  66  92 /  20  10  10  20
CFV   69  89  67  92 /  30  30  10  20
CNU   68  89  66  92 /  20  20  10  20
K88   68  89  66  91 /  20  20  10  20

.ICT...NONE.

KETCHAM

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED