Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
AND WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO SET THINGS OFF. SO
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB

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800 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...MESO UPDATE...

STORMS IN EASTERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH AND
COULD CLIP A FEW OF OUR EASTERN MOST COUNTIES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT JUST
WEST OF ICT...AND WERE TRYING TO BREAK THRU THE CAP. MODIFIED
SNDNGS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRNT STILL INDICATED THAT A DECENT CAP WAS
IN PLACE. GIVEN CURRENT TIME FRAME WITH LOSS OF PEAK HEATING ANY
ACTIVITY IN S CENTRL KS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 54.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LATER ON AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB

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400 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

TONIGHT...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY STRETCHING EAST/WEST THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS WAS PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT FROM GREAT BEND TO SALINA. THE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE THE BEGINNINGS OF SOME DEEPER CONVECTION...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE. THE CU DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE CIN IS WEAKENING. A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY NEAR SALINA AND RUNS SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA...WITH HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE EAST/WEST ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
310-315K SURFACES REALLY GETS GOING BY 06Z...SO WOULD EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE ELEVATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE WATCH FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...EAST/WEST BOUNDARY INTERSECTION.

SATURDAY/NIGHT...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. POOLING OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A
BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY PUSH THE BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS
DEPICT. NEVERTHELESS...LEFT 20/30 POPS FOR THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY...AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
LOWER A BIT AND CLOUD COVER MAY BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT. RETURN FLOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT CONVICTED ME TO INTRODUCE 20 POPS OVER WESTERN
ZONES. THANKS COORDINATION WITH DODGE CITY.

SUNDAY/NIGHT...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY ON
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. INTRODUCED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THINK IT
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY ONLY
FARTHER EAST.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FAVORING HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. MODELS ARE WANTING TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD KEEP US SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND
APT FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

FCSTID = 21/KLEINSASSER
ICT   68  88  66  93 /  30  20  20  20
HUT   67  88  65  94 /  30  10  20  20
EWK   67  88  65  94 /  30  10  20  20
EQA   68  87  66  93 /  30  20  10  10
WLD   69  88  67  93 /  40  30  20  20
RSL   63  88  64  94 /  20  10  20  20
GBD   67  89  65  94 /  20  10  20  20
SLN   65  88  65  94 /  20  10  10  10
MPR   67  88  65  94 /  30  10  20  20
CFV   69  87  67  91 /  40  30  10  10
CNU   65  87  66  90 /  30  20  10  10
K88   65  87  65  89 /  30  20  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1035 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/JAKUB