Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

TNGT:
MAIN FOCUS WL BE FNT PUSHING ACRS THE AREA.  SOME OF THE STORMS WL
LKLY BE SVR GIVEN 2-3K CAPE AND DRY AIR/DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.
DOWNBURST WINDS SHUD BE PRIMARY THREAT.  APPRS THAT PCPN WL CLR ICT
ARND 06Z AND FAR SE KS BY 12Z.  DRIER AIR AND CLRG SKIES SHUD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL CONSIDERABLY IN RSL/GBD AREAS.

THU:
SHUD BE FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH DRIER AIR AND LGT WNDS REGION WIDE.
SOME CONCERN IF WINDS PICK UP GIVEN DNSLP COMP AND DRY AIRMASS...
THAT TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER IN NW SXNS.

THU NGT-SUN:
BIG QUESTION IS RETURN OF MSTR/FNT.  NOT AT ALL CLR WHEN THIS WL
BE...WITH A LOT OF VARIATION FM MODEL TO MODEL.  THROW IN NW FLOW
ALF AND PCPN COULD BE PSBL ABT ANY TIME.  CLIMO WOULD FAVOR THE
EVE/OVNGT PERIODS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...AND ONLY NOGAPS/MM5 DATA...
OPTED TO BASICALLY GO WITH EXISTING FCST.  DID NIX POPS IN FAR SW
SXNS ON FRI AFTN.  SOME CHC FOR PCPN ON FRI NGT AND KEEP THAT
GOING.  MAY BE A BETTER CHC ON SAT NGT...MAINLY E OF FLINT HILLS...
WITH WEAK RIPPLE IN NW FLOW...COMBINED WITH H85-H7 WARM AIR ADVCTN.
HOWEVER OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IT YET GIVEN WIDE RANGE OF MODEL OUTPUT
AND DIVERGENCE OF OPINION IN ADJACENT OFFICES..

MON-WED:
UPR RDG SHUD BUILD ACRS THE PLAINS.  AGN SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF RUNS...WHICH WOULD DETERMINE WHETHER REGION IS IN NW FLOW
ALF OR UNDER RGD.  OPTED TO STAY CURRENT COURSE WITH DRY AND WARMING
TREND THRU TUE AND THEN VRY SLGTLY COOLER WED AS DEWPTS INCR.

FCSTID =   17/HOWERTON
ICT   67  93  66  95 /  40   0  10  10
HUT   65  93  65  95 /  50   0  10  10
EWK   66  92  67  94 /  50   0  10  10
EQA   67  92  67  94 /  30   0  10  10
WLD   69  94  67  96 /  40  10  10  10
RSL   61  94  64  96 /  10   0  10  10
GBD   62  94  64  96 /  20   0  10  10
SLN   65  92  65  94 /  30   0  10  10
MPR   66  92  67  94 /  50   0  10  10
CFV   69  87  65  90 /  60  10  10  10
CNU   67  88  65  90 /  60  10  10  10
K88   67  88  65  90 /  60   5  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE
AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE AND THE COOL FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP AFTER 2 OR 3 PM TODAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF
A HUTCHINSON TO SALINA LINE...AND NORTH OF A WICHITA TO EUREKA LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 6 PM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MORE LIKELY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY AFTER 3 PM
TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF A HUTCHINSON TO SALINA LINE...AND NORTH OF A
WICHITA TO EUREKA LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS THEN ANTICIPATED
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM