Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003

VERY TRICKY FCST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP LOCATION
CHANCES.

TDY-TNGHT
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THINGS OVER
THE NEXT 48HRS. OUR PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN
REFLECTING MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION. AFTER PONDERING SEVERAL SCENARIOS
AND TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN IT APPEARS
THAT THE ETA COULD BE ON TO SOMETHING HERE. ITS ALL GOING TO BOIL
DOWN TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS (POSITIONING OF COOL OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MCV DEVELOPMENT) AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK
OVER OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MAIN STEERING
FLOW REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES POSSIBLE MCV FORMING WHERE ETA SOLUTION SUGGESTED
SOMEWHERE IN SW KS DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS
POSSIBLE MCV WILL SHOW SLOW EASTWARD MOTION DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW
OVER THE REGION TDY. THINGS SHOULD REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR AREAS NEAR
AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY WILL BE HELPFUL IN RECHARGING THINGS AND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED BY DAYSHIFT...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THINGS WILL BE
HELD IN CHECK AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
BACK A BIT TOO. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR SOME
AREAS.

MON-TUES
VERY TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
POSSIBLE NEW MCV DEVELOPMENT FROM SUNDAYS ACTIVITY THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
POSSIBLY MATERIALIZING AGAIN ON MON WITH THINGS SETTING UP A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THIS WOULD SUGGEST PUSHING HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER
EAST AND WILL MAKE THE ADJUSTMENTS AFTER COORDS WITH A FEW
SURROUNDING OFFICES. THINGS LOOK TO FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUES BUT NOW ETA IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER WAVE TRYING TO
MOVE NORTHWARD UP FROM TX TOWARDS EASTERN OK LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK
FEATURE COULD VERY WELL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN TX REGION AND MIGRATE
ITS WAY N DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE 500MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING SOME KIND OF A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP OVER
SE KS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS OF MSTR
LINGERING AROUND. COULD THIS BE THE REASON WHY SOME MODELS ARE
TRYING TO KEY IN ON THIS...THUS POSSIBLY CAUSING DIURNAL DRIVEN
ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SE KS. WILL OPT TO KEEP IT DRY FOR
THAT PERIOD AT THIS JUNCTURE AND HAVE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS
POSSIBILITY...AS WEAK FLOW AND MODEL HANDLING OF THESE TYPE SCENARIOS
ARE CHALLENGING.

EXTENDED: WED-SAT
NO CHANGES MADE AS PERSISTENCE BUTTON WILL BE PRESSED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING DUE TO UPPER RIDGE
CAMPING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THANKS FOR COORDS...SGF, TOP, DDC

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-291030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
FLOODING RAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING IS NORTH OF A GREAT BEND TO LINDSBORG LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL IF STORMS WILL REACH SEVERE LIMITS, HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS WEATHER MAKER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC/CO