Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS TDY ARE HVY RAIN CHCS TNGT AND WITH TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER SHRA CHC LATE STA INTO SUN.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CEN/SRN KS ATTM WITH SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT.  EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS
FRONT TNGT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SE ACROSS THE REST OF KS.  UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX MAINLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE
WITH MUCAPES APROACHING 4000 J/KG.  BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS S/WV
STAYS NORTH OF SRN KS, BUT WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA PROVIDING
ADEQUATE LIFTING FOR DVLPMNT FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX.  NEXT QUESTION
LATER TNGT WILL BE HVY RAIN THREAT IN SERN KS.  ALL THE MODELS SHOW
HIGH PW VALUES WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR EFFECIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS.  FFG VALUES ARE PRETTY HIGH IN SERN KS DUE TO RECENT
WARM/DRY SNAP.  SO FEEL THAT FLOOD THREAT IS MINIMAL OR LOCALIZED.
SO WILL ONLY MENTION HVY RAINS IN THE ZONES/GRIDS BUT HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLOODING HEADLINES.  TEMPS COULD ALSO BE TRICKY OVER SRN KS AS
FROPA PROGRESION AND CLRG SKIES LATE COULD LEAD TO A NICE TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI:
THINGS QUIET DOWN ON THU AFTER FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA AS UPPER
FLOW GOES MORE NWRLY.   SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH NOTICABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SO ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE TEMPS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.   MAV
GUID AND GFS PARTIAL THICKNESS NUMBERS LOOK BEST AS ETA LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

SAT-SUN:
WEAK NW FLOW WILL LEADS TO ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ALONG THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GFS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH
WITH THIS S/WV ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO NRN SECTIONS OF KS.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS INITIALLY CUT OFF FROM THIS FRONT EARLY SAT AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER NRN AND CEN KS BY SAT NIGHT....ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLS
ALONG THE FRONT FOR A CHC OF SHRA OVERNIGHT SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

MON-TUE:
FRONT WASHES OUT ON MON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING.  SO EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARMUP INTO THE LOW 90S ON MON AND TUES.

TUE-WED:
ANOTHER WK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE KS ON TUE.  MAIN SHRA CHC APPEARS
TO BE TUE EVE AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. SO WILL INSERT
A SLGT CHC INTO TUES EVE.

FCSTID =   22 / KETCHAM
ICT   57  78  55  84 /  40   0   0   0
HUT   55  77  55  84 /  10   0   0   0
EWK   56  78  55  84 /  20   0   0   0
EQA   57  78  55  84 /  40   5   0   0
WLD   59  80  56  84 /  60  10   0   0
RSL   51  76  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
GBD   53  76  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
SLN   54  76  54  84 /   5   0   0   0
MPR   56  78  55  84 /  20   0   0   0
CFV   61  81  56  83 /  80  10   0   0
CNU   61  80  56  83 /  70  10   0   0
K88   60  79  56  83 /  70  10   0   0

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KETCHAM

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-261030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE, SO BE
LISTENING FOR SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM