Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

FCST FOCUS ON IMPACT OF APPROACHING COOL FRONT ON TEMPS/PRECIP NEXT
FEW DAYS.

FEEL THAT THE ETA/KF HAS THE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTION OF CONVECTION
IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND WILL FOLLOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF ETA/GFS
THROUGH 120 HOURS.

SFC BOUNDARY NOW MOVING THROUGH IOWA INTO CENTRAL NEB. GREATEST CAPE
EXISTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WERE 1500-2000 CAPE IS
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING T-STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN/NE KS...WHILE SCT/ISOLD ACTIVITY IS FIRING TO THE
WEST OF A SLN/P28 LINE IN AREA OF HIGHER 850-700MB THETA-E.

AS MENTIONED...FEEL THAT THE ETA KF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION HAS
A GOOD DEPICTION OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES TO SEE EVENING ACTIVITY GRADUALLY END, WHILE SCT/ISOLD
ACTIVITY PERSISTS ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP 20-30
POPS NORTH/WEST OF ICT TO CNU LINE AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

ON THURS...WOULD EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO COOL BY A FEW DEGREES WITHIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/EXPECTED SCT/BKN MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS. ALSO
EXPECT 20-30 COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOME LINGERING PRECIP INTO THURS NIGHT BEFORE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
EVOLVES TO BRING MORE ORGANIZED SW FLOW ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY-SAT.
AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY, WAA/PRESSURE ADVECTION WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP...AT THIS POINT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT LOOK LIKE THE GREATEST
CHCS. WILL KEEP FRI DRY DESPITE ETA/S STRONG PRESSURE ADVECTION. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN EXPECTED MID CLOUD.

BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL IDEA OF HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS NOW COMING AROUND TO
THE IDEA OF HANGING A BOUNDARY UP ACROSS THE STATE SUN NIGHT-MON
BEFORE PUSHING IT BACK NORTH GIVEN LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNSLOPE BUT CONDS SHOULD BE DRY OVERALL GIVEN CAPPING AND ABSENCE
OF ANY STRONGER UPPER WAVES. FEEL THAT A COOL FRONT MAY SAG THROUGH
THE CWA SOMETIME LATER TUES INTO WEDS.

FCSTID =   11
ICT   64  83  63  80 /  10  20  20  10
HUT   63  82  62  80 /  20  20  20  10
EWK   63  82  62  80 /  10  20  20  10
EQA   64  82  61  80 /  10  20  20  10
WLD   65  83  63  81 /  10  20  20  10
RSL   60  81  60  80 /  40  20  40  10
GBD   61  81  61  80 /  30  30  40  10
SLN   61  82  60  82 /  40  20  20  10
MPR   63  82  62  80 /  10  20  20  10
CFV   64  82  62  82 /  10  20  20  10
CNU   63  82  61  81 /  10  20  20  10
K88   63  82  61  81 /  10  20  20  10

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE, BUT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE. DUE TO VERY
WEAK WINDS ALOFT, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS MAINLY IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, A COOL FRONT MAY SAG INTO THE AREA.
THIS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

COX/JMC