Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS PAGE IS PRECIP CHANCES TNGHT AND SUN.

TNGHT-SUN:  ONE OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS FOR CONVECTION THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHT HAS BEEN A DECENT LLJ. THIS EVENING 850MB WINDS SHUD
TURN OUT OF THE NORTH, LIMITING OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO QUITE A BIT
OF DOWNGLIDE IN THE 300K-305K LAYERS. RIGHT NOW PREV FCST HAS SLGHT
CHANCE IN. ON THE FENCE ON WHETHER TO KEEP IT OR NOT. WITH SOME
TOWERING CU STILL OUT THERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WL
JUST KEEP SLGHT CHANCE IN THIS EVENING. WL ALSO NEED TO THROW SOME
PATCHY FOG IN FOR TNGHT, AS WET GROUNDS SHUD AID IN SOME
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE FCSTED SET-UP, IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SUN. ONCE AGAIN THE KF ETA DID A VERY GOOD JOB WITH PRECIP
LOCATION AND TIMING. WL FOLLOW THIS ONCE AGAIN AND TAKE POPS OUT FOR
SUN, THIS THINKING WAS ALSO SHARED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES.

MON-TUES: UPPER RIDGE WL INTENSIFY MON OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SHUD
PUSH THE PRECIP INTO TWO GENERAL REGIONS. FIRST IN UPSLOPE REGIME
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, WL GO DRY THE REST OF THE FCST. A WARM UP WL
COMMENCE TUES, AS MID AND UPPER 70S WL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.

WED-SAT: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THROUGH THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS IVE DONE THE FCST. BOTH ECM AND GFS AGREE ON
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z WED. THIS WOULD
PLACE A SFC RIDGE GENERALLY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS HIGH WL BEGIN TO PROMOTE SOME DOWNSLOPING
ACROSS CWA, ESPECIALLY FOR THURS AS THE HIGH SLIPS FURTHER SW. LOOK
FOR HIGHS BY THURS AT LEAST IN THE MID 80S. TEMPS FRI COULD BE
TRICKY AS BOTH GFS AND ECM BRING A TROUGH CLOSE TO AREA.  850MB
TEMPS REALLY GET CRANKED UP BY 12Z FRI. THESE TEMPS WL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE TRICKY PART WL BE WHEN
THIS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. FOR NOW WL JUST GO LOW TO MID 80S. BUT
IF THIS TROUGH HANGS UP, WE COULD EASILY GET 90.  NEVERTHELESS, A
DECENT WARM-UP WL BE IN STORE WED-FRI.

FCSTID = 7/LAWSON
ICT   57  72  53  73 /  20  10   0   0
HUT   56  71  51  72 /  20  10   0   0
EWK   56  72  52  73 /  20  10   0   0
EQA   56  72  52  73 /  20  10   0   0
WLD   58  73  54  74 /  20  10   0   0
RSL   54  71  51  72 /  20  10   0   0
GBD   54  71  50  72 /  20  10   0   0
SLN   57  72  51  75 /  20  10   0   0
MPR   56  72  52  73 /  20  10   0   0
CFV   58  71  54  73 /  20  10   0   0
CNU   56  71  52  73 /  20  10   0  10
K88   56  71  52  72 /  20  10   0   0

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IF STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

CHANCE