Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TODAY:
ALL FACETS OF FCST TROUBLESOME WITH QSTNRY FRONT DRAPED IN W-E MANNER
ACRS CNTRL OK, COMPLICATED FURTHER BY POORLY-DEFINED FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ACRS NRN KS. IN FORMER CASE, WELL-DEFINED MID-LVL S/WV
SURGING E ACRS NM TEAMING WITH INCRG LLJ, THE NOSE OF WHICH
POSITIONED OVER FAR WRN OK/SW KS, TO GENERATE FURTHER TSRA ACTION
THIS AREA. WITH PREVAILING WLY MID-LVL FLOW, THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD VENTURE ACRS XTRM SRN KS WHERE 30-40% POPS HAVE BEEN
ASSIGNED. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO TIME CONVECTIVE PERIOD SO HAVE
ASSIGNED THESE POPS THRUT THIS PERIOD.

TNGT:
A BREAK IN PCPN ACTION SLATED ALL AREAS AS ERN DAKOTAS 850-MB LOW
MOVES SE TOWARD MID-MS VALLEY ALLOWING DRYING NW/N COMP TO OVERSPREAD
CNTRL KS. XTRM SC & SE KS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION IN THAT THESE AREAS
REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO ZONE OF WEAK ELY LWR-LVL FLOW THAT MAY INDUCE
ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO KEEP THESE AREAS SHROUDED IN IFR/LIFR STRATUS.

THU:
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA SLATED FOR W/SW CORRIDOR AS WELL-DEFINED
MID-LVL S/WV SCOOTS E/SE ACRS AZ & NM TO INDUCE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW ALONG NM/TX BDR. HAVE RE-COMMENCED SHRA
IN AFTN ACRS SC & MOST OF CNTRL KS WHERE 20-30% POPS ASSIGNED.

THU NGT-FRI:
RAINY PERIOD FOR NEARLY ALL OF CWA, SPCLY IF GFS VERIFYS. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THIS PERIOD SO AM LEANING
TOWARD THIS SOLN FOR POP GAMEPLAN.

FCSTID =    4
ICT   78  57  76  54 /  30   5  30  50
HUT   77  56  76  53 /  30   5  20  40
EWK   77  56  76  53 /  30   5  20  40
EQA   78  57  76  54 /  30   5  30  50
WLD   79  58  78  55 /  30   5  30  50
RSL   76  53  75  50 /  20   5  20  40
GBD   76  53  75  51 /  20   5  20  40
SLN   75  53  75  52 /  20   5  20  30
MPR   76  54  75  52 /  20   5  20  40
CFV   77  58  77  55 /  40  10  20  40
CNU   77  57  76  54 /  30   5  10  30
K88   76  57  76  53 /  30   5  10  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING FOR SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE,
BUT SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE FOG WILL BE RATHER THICK IN PATCHY AREAS WHERE THE
VISIBILITY COULD BE AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TICKETED FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEW MEXICO INDUCES
INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

COX