Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

TDAY-TNGHT: BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON SFC LOW SHOULD BE SITUATED
GENERALLY OVER NW KS. THE DRY LINE HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER WEST WITH
EACH MODEL RUN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON,
THE MESO-ETA HAS THE DRYLINE BASICALLY OVER ICT, AND YESTERDAY IT
HAD IT JUST WEST OF CNU. AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE LOOK FOR AROUND 70
DPS. CAPES AT 21Z GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE ARE IN THE 4500J/KG
RANGE, WITH NO CIN  ITS INTERESTING THAT THE MESO-ETA DOES NOT
GENERATE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z. BUT AT 21Z IT DOES JACK UP 700 RHS
ALONG THE DRY LINE, WHICH IM TAKING AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STORMS
SHUD INITIATE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH SHUD GENERALLY BE AROUND
SLN TO EMP. THE WARM FRONT SHUD BE BASICALLY THROUGH MKC, OR JUST
SOUTH. TORNADOES WL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP, EITHER
ALONG THE DRY LINE OR WARM FRONT, DUE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  BUT FEEL THE BEST LONG TRACK TORNADO
POTENTIAL WL EXIST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WL BE MORE BACKED, WHICH
SHUD BE CLOSER TO WARM FRONT. HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTERACTS
WITH THESE FEATURES WL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY SHIFT.

FOR ALL STORM CHASERS/SPOTTERS OUT THERE...YOUR REAL-TIME SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS ARE EXTREMELY VITAL TO US. BE SURE TO RELAY YOUR
SIGHTINGS OF HAIL/WINDS AND ESPECIALLY TORNADOES TO US AT THE NWS OR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES (AND THEY WL RELAY YOUR REPORTS TO
US). OUR PRIMARY AMATEUR RADIO RADIO FREQUENCY IN SOUTHEAST KS IS
145.13. SECONDARY IS 147.21. AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OUT PRIMARY FREQ
IS 146.820.

BY 06Z FRI, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHUD BE EXITING THE AREA AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN MO, WHO NEEDLESS TO SAY DOENT NEED ANY MORE SVR WX.

FRI: SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY 18Z FRI. CWA WL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT FRI AS MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. WHATS INTERESTING IS THAT THE REALLY RICH
GULF MOISTURE NEVER GETS SHUNTED SOUTH, AND JUST LINGERS OVER SE MO.
THIS WL COME INTO PLAY AS NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS CWA SAT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WL INCREASE FRI NGHT. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
ELEVATED TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS, WHERE GREATER
MOISTURE WL BE LOCATED.

SAT: STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST, AS MAIN
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OVER THE REGION. A GREATER THAN 100KT UPPER JET
WL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, AND ATTM SFC TROUGH WL EXTEND FROM EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. AT THE SAME TIME A DRY LINE IS EXPECT
TO SURGE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH MID AND UPPER 60S DPS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WL BE A GOOD BE BET OVER EASTERN
OK, WESTER MO AND WESTERN AK. IN MY CWA EASTERN KANSAS WL HAVE THE
BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH PREV FCST HAS WELL IN
HAND. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG MID AND UPPER
FLOW, SVR WX WL BE POSSIBLE.

SUN-WED:
ECM AND GFS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS,
THAT IS UNTIL NOW.

BY 12Z SUN BOTH AGREE ON SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LEAVING
CWA IN STRONG CAA. ACTUALLY SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE WINDY. ON MON THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. MEANWHILE
THE ECM TRIES TO SNEAK A CLOSED LOW OVER THIS SAME AREA. REGARDLESS
OF THESE FEATURES CWA SHUD BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MON. BY TUES THE ECM
HAS A STRONG SFC RIDGE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE GFS HAS A LOW
FORMING OVER WEST TEXAS. FEEL THAT GFS MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE EXTENDED, ESPECIALLY AFTER TALKING WITH HPC. THE UKMET
AGREES MUCH MORE WITH THE GFS THEN THE ECM.  SO FOR NOW WL LEAVE
MENTION OF PRECIP IN FOR TUES NGHT AND WED, BUT WL TRIM BACK TO
SLGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   84  57  82  61 /  30  30  10  20
HUT   83  56  81  59 /  10  20  10  20
EWK   84  56  82  61 /  20  30  10  20
EQA   84  57  82  63 /  30  30  10  20
WLD   86  61  84  63 /  30  30  10  30
RSL   79  52  80  56 /  10  10  10  20
GBD   81  54  81  56 /  10  10  10  20
SLN   83  55  81  60 /  20  20  10  20
MPR   84  56  82  61 /  30  30  10  20
CFV   85  65  85  65 /  60  60  10  30
CNU   84  63  83  64 /  60  60  10  30
K88   83  63  84  64 /  60  60  10  30

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

LAWSON

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT FORMS
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. JUICY GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BE DRAWN
NORTH, UP AND OVER THIS FRONT RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF UNSTABLE AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS. HAIL WILL BE A GOOD BET WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP, BUT A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FIRST WHERE THE DRY LINE AND WARM FRONT
INTERSECT, WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DRYLINE COULD
INITIATE STORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE TURNPIKE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A COUPLE TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS YET ANOTHER POTENT UPPER WAVE KICKS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM