Tornado Warning 17, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
129 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. HUN RADAR
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP NRN ALABAMA.

COLD FRONT GOING THRU MEM AND SHOULD PUSH THRU NRN AL BY THIS
EVENING. WITH SUCH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA...ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT...CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE ACROSS CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL GO
30 POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND MENTION SEVERE WX POSSIBLE.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS SHOWS ALMOST NO POPS ON SATURDAY...SORT OF
CONCERN ABOUT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY DUE TO WHERE THE
COLD FRONT ENDS UP...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUT THE CHANCE OF
PCPN ON SATURDAY.

BACK TO THE FORECAST...MODELS SEEMS TO BE OVER DOING THE QPF...
ESPECIALLY FOR TODAY.  MOS VALUES SEEM REASONABLE FOR TEMPS. DONT
THINK I CAN IMPROVE CURRENT FORECAST...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. DID TWEAK THE TEMPS A TAD IN THE EXTENDED AND ADDED CHANCE
OF TSRA/SHRA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF...

HSV 59/79/58/78  3222
MSL 59/78/57/79  3222

.HUN...NONE.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>010-016-030215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE OPTIMUM TIME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 9
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ANOTHER VIGOROUS...BUT SLOW MOVING...SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0347 PM    GREEN HILL                AL   0.75 IN HAIL
05/01/03   LAUDERDALE                     DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED
                                          BY LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA

0359 PM    CENTER STAR               AL   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/03   LAUDERDALE                     LAUDERDALE EMA REPORTED A
                                          TREE DOWNED UTILITY POLE
                                          AND POWER LINES NEAR THE
                                          ANTIOCH CHURCH AND SET A
                                          NEARBY FIELD ON FIRE.

0430 PM    RED BAY                   AL   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/03   FRANKLIN                       EMA OFFICIALS REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN IN THE RED BAY
                                          AND OAKGROVE AREAS.

0458 PM    ZIP CITY                  AL   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/03   LAUDERDALE                     LAUDERDALE COUNTY EMA
                                          OFFICIALS REPORTED TREES
                                          DOWN IN ZIP CITY AREA.

0513 PM    HILLSBORO                 AL   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/03   LAWRENCE                       DAMAGE TO TRAILER HOME
                                          NORTH OF HILLSBORO OON CR
                                          400.

0530 PM    HUNTSVILLE                AL   WIND DAMAGE
05/01/03   MADISON                        MADISON EMA OFFICIAL
                                          REPORTED LARGE TREE LIMB
                                          DOWN IN DOWNTOWN
                                          HUNTSVILLE AT THE
                                          INTERSECTION AT FRANKLIN
                                          AND NEEL WHICH COMPLETELY
                                          BLOCKED THE ROADWAY.