Tornado Warning 1, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
715 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

FOG...LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO
EXTEND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALL NIGHT. FLOOD WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WFO HUN COUNTIES EXCEPT DE KALB UNTIL 10 PM FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN.

JE/23

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS THE FLOODING THREAT
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS...ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AL NOW COULD GIVE US THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ETA AND GFS MODELS ARE BOTH CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE MAIN
BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AL FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY. THAT IS WHEN RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN AL. WE WILL HAVE EXTRA
STAFF ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DUE TO THIS.

THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THAT A CLASSIC WEDGING PATTERN SETS UP IN THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH NC NOW. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NET EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 50 OVER NORTHERN AL SUNDAY.

THE TRENDS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOK GOOD AS FAR AS RAIN
ENDING LATE SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

THE NEW GFS RUN INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR
THAT...AND TO REMOVE THE RAIN CHANCE FOR FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

HSV 56/56 38/47  ++51
MSL 53/53 37/47  ++51

.HUN...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

ALZ001>010-016-160330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
103 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES.  SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ALABAMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA BY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF RAIN SUNDAY BEFORE IT TAPERS
OFF AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT. ANY FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

BURKS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM                              AL   FLASH FLOOD
02/14/03   LAUDERDALE                     NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED
                                          THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

1000 PM    10NE FLORENCE             AL   FLASH FLOOD
02/14/03   LAUDERDALE                     ROADS CLOSED NEAR SHOALS
                                          CREEK DUE TO WATER.

1220 PM    5SW HUNTSVILLE            AL   FLASH FLOOD
02/15/03   MADISON                        STANDING WATER ON GOLF
                                          COURSE AND INDIAN CREEK
                                          OUT OF BANKS.

0400 PM    6N ROGERSVILLE            AL   FLASH FLOOD
02/15/03   LAUDERDALE                     COUNTY ROAD 81 CLOSED DUE
                                          TO WATER.