Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TSRA CHANCES THROUGHOUT PERIOD...

10Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS BOOTHEEL OF
MO WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS MS AND TN VALLEYS. MOST
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE AND NORTHERN TN WITH
ANOTHER LOCATED THROUGH CENTRAL AR AND LA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST AS INSTABILITY IS
ABUNDANT THROUGHOUT REGION. MAIN UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS AR WITH
VORT LOBE EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH LA. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG MS RIVER IN WAKE OF UL FORCING. 12Z MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT KEEPING PCPN IN ENTIRE PERIOD ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
AND PCPN AMOUNTS IN QUESTION.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THUR NIGHT)...
MESOETA INDICATES VORT LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH FA BY MIDNIGHT
TIMEFRAME. UNTIL THIS FEATURE GOES THROUGH...EXPECT THUNDER TO
CONTINUE. STRONG WINDS AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES THROUGH APPROX 12Z WITH COND PRESSURE DEFICITS BETWEEN
30-40 MB. STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WITH LESS IN WAY OF DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. WILL DECIDE ON
POPS CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

ACTIVITY THAT HAS OCCURRED TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS FA THURSDAY. CAPES IN 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE WITH
LI/S AROUND -4 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE (NOT ONLY THURSDAY BUT THROUGH
REMAINDER OF WEEK). UL SUPPORT NOT FORECAST TO MOVE IN UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SFC BOUNDARIES WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION.
THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 00Z. PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AT 1.75 INCHES. SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS WILL MAKE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CHANCES HARD TO PIN DOWN. MM5 PRINTING OUT
1.50-1.75 INCH BULLSEYE ACROSS SOUTHERN FA BETWEEN 15-18Z
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH AM AT A LOSS AS TO WHAT THE FOCUS WILL BE.

.MID TERM AND EXTENDED...
SAME OLD STORY AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES APPROACH IN ZONAL FLOW.
UNSTABLE...MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PERIOD. CURRENT NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP HOLD UP OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPPER HIGH BEGINS
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY...DO NOT SEE MUCH BREAK IN WAY OF THUNDER CHANCES.

RADAR NOTE...

KHTX WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODICALLY TAKEN DOWN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT DUE TO FAILING KLYSTRON TUBE. DOWNTIME OF 5 TO 10 MINUTES PER
HOUR WILL BE LIKELY TO KEEP RADAR IN OPERATIONAL MODE. PARTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE INSTALLED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WEATHER PERMITTING.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
HUNTSVILLE     71/85 71/85 71   54545
MUSCLE SHOALS  70/85 70/86 70   54545
CULLMAN        71/87 71/87 72   54545
FORT PAYNE     69/84 70/84 70   54545

.HUN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTH ALABAMA UNTIL 4 PM.

PB

ALZ001>010-016-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1254 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>005-007-016-111900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 2 PM WILL INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...RUSSELLVILLE...TOWN CREEK...ATHENS AND DECATUR. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL..AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN STRONGER
STORMS.

KTW

ALZ006-008>010-111900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
112 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA.  LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 2 PM WILL INCLUDE...
STEVENSON...SYLVANIA...RAINSVILLE...AND FORT PAYNE. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL..AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 1/4 OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 OF AN INCH IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

KTW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1218 PM    GUNTERSVILLE              AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   MARSHALL                       LARGE TREE REPORTED DOWN
                                          NEAR THE GUNTERSVILLE
                                          AIRPORT ON PINE ISLAND
                                          CIRCLE FROM EMA
                                          OFFICIALS.

0209 PM    RED BAY                   AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   FRANKLIN                       SEVERAL TREES DOWN
                                          NORTHEAST OF RED BAY ON
                                          COUNTY ROADS 25, 23, AND
                                          15.

0230 PM    TOWN CREEK                AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   LAWRENCE                       1 MILE SOUTH OF TOWN
                                          CREEK. LARGE TREE DOWN ON
                                          COUNTY HIGHWAY 143.

0232 PM    MOULTON                   AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   LAWRENCE                       TREES DOWN 6 MILES NORTH
                                          OF MOULTON ON HIGHWAY
                                          33.

0250 PM    ATHENS                    AL   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   LIMESTONE                      68 MPH WINDS REPORTED
                                          WEST OF ATHENS.  FLAG
                                          POLE WEST OF ATHENS DOWN
                                          BY WINDS AND BASKETBALL
                                          GOAL IN CONCRETE BLOWN
                                          DOWN WEST OF ATHENS.