Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR UPDATE INCLUDE THUNDER POTENTIAL
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TEMPS...

CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OH
THROUGH MIDDLE TN BACK ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX. LARGE MCS
AFFECTING NORTHERN AL ALONG THETA-E RIDGE...AS INDICATED BY CURRENT
RUC ANALYSIS. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE CENTRAL AL WHILE TN VALLEY SOCKED
IN BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES AROUND 2000
J/KG WITH -5 LI/S PER KOHX...ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUFFICIENT CAP.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS FA WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING...COURTESY OF LMA
DATA. SOME DEVELOPMENT ALSO NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF ACTUAL
FRONT.

QUESTION FOR THE DAY IS HOW MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SEEN TODAY
IN FA. STORM ACTIVITY WILL HELP TO STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND
WITH LITTLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...THINK RENEWED STORM CHANCES MAY BE
PRETTY SLIM THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MS SEEING BREAK IN RAIN RIGHT
NOW...INDICATIVE OF STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. 13Z RUC ANALYSIS HAS
THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING BY NOON WITH THUNDER
ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFF TO EAST.

PWAT VALUES AHEAD OF FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN 2 INCH RANGE...SO
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
12Z GUIDANCE HAS FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SO SHOWERS
AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY. HOWEVER...WILL BASE UPDATE
ON LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS REGARDING POPS.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEM TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED.
TEMPS IN LOWER 70S WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO MID 80S AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS TO NEAR 80 BUT WILL WAIT CLOSER TO
UPDATE TIME BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION.

UPDATE AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 1600Z.

.HUN...NONE.

PB

ALZ001>010-016-221800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESUME ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 8 AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL
WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WHILE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING...BUT IS UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

BCC

ALZ001>010-016-221600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
904 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AT 30
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS IS
PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG A LINE FROM
WATERLOO TO ANDERSON IN LAUDERDALE. RADAR HAS INDICATED THAT BETWEEN
3 AND 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE WATERLOO AREA AND 8
MILES NORTH OF FLORENCE.

THIS AREA OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND MAY
PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING TO AREAS ALONG A LINE
FROM STEVENSON IN JACKSON COUNTY TO RUSSELLVILLE IN FRANKLIN COUNTY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 11 AM COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES.

DO NOT CROSS ROADWAYS THAT ARE COVERED WITH WATER...FIND ANOTHER
ROUTE TO YOUR DESTINATION.  DO NOT CROSS SMALL CREEKS OR STREAMS...
EVEN ON FOOT.

WEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0734 AM    KILLEN                    AL   0.75 IN HAIL
07/22/03   LAUDERDALE                     PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ALZ001>004-221540-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 797 HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LAUDERDALE AND LAWRENCE.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THESE AREAS...
THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.

PB/AB