Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

.UPDATE...
COORD WITH OHX...PONDERING FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING...AGREE WITH
FFC AND OHX THAT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET THE NEXT TWO SHIFTS MONITOR. IF I WAS CERTAIN ABOUT RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...I WOULD BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. FOR
NOW...WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ZONES TNGT AND WED.

.ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
SLOWLY STARTING TO BECOME A BUSY AFTERNOON HERE AT THE HUN. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY FIRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. OUR
FLASH FLOOD MONITORING TOOL INDICATES TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL JUST
SOUTH OF TUSCUMBIA BETWEEN 130 PM AND 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON...SO
NEEDLESS TO SAY THESE ARE PRECIPITATION-EFFICIENT STORMS TODAY. IF
PRECIP COVERAGE HOLDS ON TO ZONE ISSUANCE TIME...WILL NEED TO
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES.

LOOKING AT KHTX RADAR...ALTHOUGH OUR PRECIPITATION IS NOT MOVING
ONLY SLOWLY...RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
ENERGY FROM THE MID-LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP MOVING THIS WAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL NEED TO BOOST POPS AS A RESULT.

.SHORT TERM...
WITH CONTINUED MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING ACROSS...AND BOUNDARIES
FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING...WE EXPECT CONTINUED LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
BRING UP TO HIGH CHANCE-LEVEL POPS THERE. I ALSO WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER TOMORROWS MAX FORECAST TEMPS...CANT SEE US GETTING ANY
WARMER TOMORROW THAN WE HAVE TODAY.

.EXTENDED...
THE EXTENDED PROG HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. NOW A HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
POTENTIALLY DRAGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. IM WILLING TO
BUY INTO THIS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS.
BUT IM NOT SURE HOW LONG THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LAST. AT THIS
POINT WILL JUST TREND DRIER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY AS
THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...WE WILL INEVITABLY GET RETURN FLOW
AND COME BACK TO THE OLD STANDARD SUMMERTIME PATTERN AGAIN. AND I AM
HESITANT TO DRY OUT A SET OF DAYS ONLY TO HAVE TO FLIP-FLOP BACK TO
THE ORIGINAL SOLUTION LATER.

.PRELIM DIGITS...(FIRST PERIOD STILL PRELIM)
MUSCLE SHOALS  70/84/69/84/67/85  775532
HUNTSVILLE     70/83/69/84/67/85  775532
FORT PAYNE     68/83/69/83/68/84  775532
CULLMAN        71/85/70/85/69/86  775532

.HUN...NONE.

JE/23

ALZ001>010-016-181000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PEAS...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ONE OR TWO
OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 65
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS MOISTURE RICH AREA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

ALZ001>010-016-172100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AND MOVE NORTHEAST SLOWLY AT 15
MPH ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH 4 PM. LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH
4 PM WILL INCLUDE...TUSCUMBIA...HUNTSVILLE...IDER...GERALDINE...
RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOULTON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS AS THEY PASS THROUGH.

RADAR INDICATES 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE TUSCUMBIA
AREA THROUGH 3 PM. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE QUAD
CITIES AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

KTW