Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Huntsville, AL

000 
WGUS74 KHUN 220630 CCA
FFSHUN
ALC033-059-077-079-083-221000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 4 AM...

AT 1215 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER NORTHWEST 
ALABAMA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE 
RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE 
TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 4 AM.

SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS OCCURRING ALONG WITH 
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

SOME CITIES AFFECTED THROUGH 400 AM CST INCLUDE...
   FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...BELGREEN...                            
   RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...WATERLOO...
   AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE VEHICLE RELATED. NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR
WALK ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE COVERED BY FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. ABANDON VEHICLES
THAT STALL OR BEGIN TO FLOAT. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE THE
FLOOD.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL 
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN 
HUNTSVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER...OR TO YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3471 8711 3432 8711 3434 8815 3501 8816
          3499 8681 3458 8680

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

...FORECAST CONCERNS PCPN INTENSITY AND SVR POSSIBILITY...

02Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL LA WITH
WARM FRONT STRADDLING GULF COAST. INVERTED TROF EXTENDS FROM LOW
CENTER THROUGH NORTHWEST MS INTO CENTRAL TN. CURRENT WV IMAGERY
SHOWING DRY SLOT DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL BACK IN EASTERN TX. WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH MAIN T-STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG GULF COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS PER KHTX 88D SHOW LARGEST SWATH
OF PCPN AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM LAWRENCE THROUGH SOUTHERN LIMESTONE
COUNTIES WITH 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH PER HOUR.

BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW
ALTHOUGH NGM TOO WEAK WITH PRESSURE AND TOO FAR WEST WITH PLACEMENT
OF INVERTED TROF. NEWEST ETA GIVES FORECAST AREA APPROX 0.75 INCHES
BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z WITH 18Z AVN STILL HOLDING ON TO 1.50 TO 2.00
INCHES. GIVEN PWATS AROUND 1.5 AND STRONG DYNAMICS EXPECTED BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WILL TREND MORE TOWARD AVN SOLUTION...HOWEVER
APPROACHING DRY SLOT MAY PUT DAMPER ON TOTAL AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS FORECAST AREA SO WONT
TAKE MUCH TO SEE FLOODING ACROSS AREA.

UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 100KT
JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROF AND PLACING REGION IN LEFT FRONT QUAD. 65KT
850MB JET KICKS IN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY TOWARD EARLY MORNING. CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH
LI/S APPROACHING -4. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF SFC.

ALL IN ALL FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE AND DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING
ANY DRASTIC CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.HUN...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

BRIDENSTINE

ALZ001>010-016-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
930 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TONIGHT)...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BY MORNING WITH RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AND
RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN NORTH ALABAMA WILL BE AFTER 4 AM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 10 AM WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA.

AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE AREA
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON WATERWAYS AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THESE HIGH WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOPPLE
WATER-LOGGED AND SHALLOW ROOTED TREES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...WITH JUST
SMALL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ZIKA