Tornado Warning 1, NWS Hanford, CA

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST THU FEB 13 2003

CURRENT HNX 88D SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VALLEY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ERUPTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
SIERRA. VALLEY TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON WERE WELL IN THE
60S...AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...IT FELT
MUCH LIKE A CENTRAL PLAINS SPRING DAY.

MESOETA/RUC PROGS HOLD ON TO A BIT OF WEAK H7 OMEGA BEFORE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. THUS... WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS...SCATTERED VALLEY PRECIP
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET AS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
THE INSTABILITY SETS. MESOETA PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE
SURFACE LI/S DEVELOPING TOMORROW WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BASED
CAPES TO AROUND 300 J/KG OVER THE SIERRA CREST. SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO HANG AROUND AS WELL. WITH NORTHERLY H7 WINDS
AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THINK
VALLEY SXNS WILL DRY OUT AND SEE CONSIDERABLE SUN...BUT WITH
OROGRAPHICS THE KERN MOUNTAINS/NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND HAVE OPTED TO
RETAIN SOME POPS. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES WELL EAST AND WITH RIDGING STILL IN PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VALLEY FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN MOIST SURFACE AND LIGHT
WINDS. MODELS DEPICT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT AC COMING
INTO PLAY BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER
THAN ITS ETA COUNTERPART IN BRINGING IN THIS STORM. WILL FAVOR GFS
DUE TO THIS CONSISTENCY AND THE BELIEF THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS
THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT BY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWFA BY THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE TROUGH IS QUICK TO EXIT SUNDAY...SO WILL DECREASE
SKY COVER AND POPS WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.

BURGER

FOR THE TIME FRAME MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PROGS THIS PERIOD. LATEST 12Z GFS IN THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE MODEL AND BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z GFS RUN INDICATED 500MB
HEIGHTS RISING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE EURO IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS BUT BRINGS THE UPPER THROUGH ABOUT A HALF DAY EARLIER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER THROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THURSDAY. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN CWFA LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MV

.HNX...NONE.

CAZ089>099-141345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 AM PST THU FEB 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.