Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Hanford, CA

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
300 PM PDT WED SEP 3 2003

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WEATHER RADAR INDICATES SOME THE
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SIERRAS. AT
THE MOMENT ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING IN THE TEHACHAPIS AND KERN
DESERTS. WITH THE STORM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH...A FEW OF THE STORM
MAY MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE LACK ANY FORCING
MECHANISM TO SUSTAINED THE STORMS...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ETA/NGM AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE ETA MAINTAINS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE AVN PROGS
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CA LATE THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN A DRIER AND MORE STABLE MARITIME
AIRMASS. AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 135W MAY
HELP KICK THE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST TOWARDS THE NW. THUS PREFER
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE AVIATION. WILL DECREASE
PROBABILITIES TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THURSDAY. A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT EAST OF THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND TO START SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE REGION...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE QUESTION FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW COOL WILL
TEMPERATURES GET. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF...ESPECIALLY GFS...ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONSIDERED A
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ARE THUS A BIT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

.HNX...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL 02Z...

MV/JB

CAZ089>099-041230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
515 AM PDT WED SEP 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THURSDAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

SOWKO