Tornado Warning 6, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
212 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN PLACE OVER SE TX INTO THIS WEEKEND.  THE PATTERN APPEARS TO
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
LOOK IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODEL FORECAST WILL STAY BELOW WHAT THE GFS IS INDICATING.
FORECAST ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

CURRENTLY THE SEA BREEZE WAS DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.  FEEL THAT AS AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  THE BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD.  STILL
FEEL THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WILL KEEP
THAT WORDING IN THE FORECAST.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TOMORROW AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS N TX.  THE MODEL FORECASTS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE...AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...REALLY
CRANK UP THE PW/S AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE 2.5 INCHES LOOKS A BIT
UNREALISTIC...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH AND
LOW ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  BOTH INDICATE
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT AGAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP THOSE DOWN TO THE CHANCE RANGE.

PL-40
33

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 072/093 073/093 073 343
IAH BB 073/094 073/094 073 333
GLS BB 079/090 079/090 079 233

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPOTTER INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DUE TO A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT AREA WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCLUDE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...AREAS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ARE INCLUDED IN THE RISK AREA
LATE TODAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED
EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO
AVOID DEHYDRATION. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT AND LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING. WEAR
A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN...AND USE SUNSCREEN TO REDUCE
POSSIBLE SUNBURN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.