Tornado Warning 22, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

RAIN IS ALL AROUND THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONES. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS IN THE VICINITY OF COLLEGE STATION.
OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF APPROACHING
LAND...BUT ARE WEAKENING AS THEY NEAR THE COAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN REGENERATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING ZONES. 46/43

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 090/074 089/073 092 535
IAH TT 087/075 089/074 091 735
GLS TT 086/077 088/079 089 744

LOOKS LIKE A STORMY AND SOGGY START TO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
UNUSUALLY WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 500 MB WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS
DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CWA. LATEST (03Z) GOES SOUNDING
FOR IAH DEPICTED PW OF 2.36 INCHES ALONG WITH NO CAP AND CAPES OF
3500 J/KG. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S...EXPECT TSRA
TO DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE COAST PUSHING INLAND TO CENTRAL
ZONES BY MIDDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL GIVEN VERY HIGH PWS IN PLACE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK
WORDING IF NEEDED. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET KEEPING WX
DRY FOR FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY EXCEPT MAIN CONCENTRATION OF TSRA WILL SHIFT TO NRN ZONES
WITH DRIER AIR (PWS AROUND 1.7 INCHES) INFILTRATING COASTAL ZONES
DURING THE AFTN. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS NORTH ON SATURDAY. GIVEN
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS BOTH DAYS.

TUTT LOW NOW OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL PROGRESS WWD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE CWA WILL BE ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
LOW SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY SO WILL LOWER POPS THESE PERIODS. HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE WORDING GIVEN PWS HOLDING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LATEST
GFS TAKES TUTT LOW INTO SE TX MON AFTN...WITH PWS AGAIN INCREASING
OVER 2 INCHES. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS AGAIN MON/TUE. WEAKNESS AND
HIGH PWS WILL PERSIST OVER CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN FCST. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CWA LATE NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING.

35/47

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...OR LOW LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION...THE STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. IF YOU HAVE PLANS OUTDOORS TODAY PLEASE KEEP WARY OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID AREAS OF OPEN WATER AND DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER FROM THE RAIN UNDERNEATH TREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.