Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SPC WILL BE ISSUING A SEVERE WW FOR THE NRN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 05Z. WATCH WILL ENCOMPASS GENERALLY THAT AREA
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALDWELL TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM HENDERSON TO THORNTON AT
01Z. RADAR SHOWS TRIPLE POINT OF DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF WACO...SO THINK STORMS COULD STILL BACK-BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT HAS A LITTLE MORE PUSH THAN DRYLINE
AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET TSRA AT LEAST INTO NERN ZONES. WILL UP
NERN  ZONES TO LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF
SEVERE NERN HALF. WILL KEEP FINGERS CROSSED THAT SOME OF THIS RAIN
MAKES IT SOUTH TO THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA.

35/43

.HGX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NRN HALF UNTIL 05Z.
       SCEC ALL WATERS.

.PRELIMS...
CLL BB 071/088 064/090 071 430
IAH EB 075/089 068/090 073 331
GLS EB 077/085 073/085 076 221

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE UP WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURE
TIED IAH RECORD 93 AT 1 PM...COULD SET A NEW RECORD BEFORE 4 PM. DEEP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WELL NORTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER.  CAP
CONTINUES TO HOLD A LID ON THINGS THIS FAR SOUTH. COLD FRONT PASSING
ABILENE AND DRYLINE NEARING KERRVILLE. UPPER LOW SLOWING DOWN AND ON
WATER VAPOR BECOMING MORE N-S ELLIPTICAL. STILL HAVE A SMALL SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. CLOSELY WATCHING THE CLUSTER OF CU NEAR AUS FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT. WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE MORE SLOWLY EAST THEN GRADUALLY TAKE A TURN
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING IN NW
ZONES REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AROUND 18Z AND THE COAST 03-06Z
SUNDAY. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ETA (ETA STILL NEAR
I-10 AT 06Z/GFS 30-60NM OFFSHORE) ON FROPA TIMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEAST FROM BIG BEND TO NEAR CHICAGO. UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH LA AND INTO THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EAST ON MONDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH GREAT LAKES
AND TRAILING END FLATTENS SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE...PUSHING A MUCH MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME CLOUDS BUT AM HESITANT TO ADD ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA SQUASHING RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CARRY AN SCEC AT A MINIMUM FOR THE MARINE...BUT SCA POSSIBLE
WILL MAKE THE DECISION AT PRESS TIME.

45/41/31

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
711 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
HOUSTON TO LIBERTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOONS AND
TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON
INTO TONIGHT.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195-196-198-199-170500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
803 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THE WATCH AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO WILLIS
TO SEGNO LINE. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:
BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY AND WALKER.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EAST COUPLED WITH
THE DRY LINE AND A SURFACE COOL FRONT WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY
MIDNIGHT.