Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE
DFW AREA HAVE GRADUALLY MADE THEIR WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE NOW
IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR THESE STORMS TO
WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT SOME ARE STILL
STRONG AT THIS TIME. CONCERN TODAY IS THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY LEAVE
A BOUNDARY AFTER IT DISSIPATES THAT MAY HELP TO SET OFF SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY WHEN DAYTIME HEATING IS STRONGEST. THEREFORE...
WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AREAWIDE FOR TODAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW UP NORTH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES. WELL THEN WAIT FOR THE NEXT UPPER LOW
(CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA) TO HEAD TOWARDS
TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE OUR FORECAST OF BEST RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY EASTWARD. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST ON SUNDAY SO WILL NEED TO PLACE SOME LOW POPS IN THE CENTRAL
AND COASTAL COUNTIES IN CASE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE
PRESENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK MEANS A RETURN TO WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT
RAIN CHANCES MAY COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. BY THE WAY...TODAY MARKS THE OFFICIAL START OF THE 2003
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

42/38

.HGX...SCEC ALL WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 092/074 092/071 087 222
IAH BB 091/074 091/073 087 211
GLS BB 085/078 085/076 085 2--

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.