Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MUCH MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE AREA AROUND LAKE CHARLES VERSUS THE CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY.
RADAR PICTURES STILL SHOW SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. VERY ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEAK HARD-TO-FIND SHORTWAVES
RACING ALONG IN THIS FLOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO
FEEL IT IS NOT A BAD IDEA TO KEEP 20% POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF
THE ZONES. ZONES LOOK GOOD SO NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.

ON A CLIMATE NOTE...WITH ONLY TWO DAYS LEFT IN APRIL 2003...CLLS
RAINFALL TOTAL STANDS AT 0.17 INCHES. IF THIS HOLDS...APRIL 2003
WILL BE THE SECOND DRIEST APRIL FOR CLL ON RECORD. THE DRIEST APRIL
EVER IS 0.08 INCHES IN 1984. CLL WILL NEED TO REACH 0.91 INCHES BY
THE END OF WEDNESDAY IN ORDER TO AVOID APRIL 2003 BEING ONE OF
THE TOP 10 DRIEST EVER. BOTH IAH AND GLS HAVE HAD ENOUGH RAIN THIS
MONTH TO AVOID MAKING APRIL 2003 ONE OF THEIR TOP 10 DRIEST ON
RECORD.

.HGX...NONE.

UPDATED PRELIMS (ADJUSTED FIRST PERIOD POPS TO 20%)...
CLL BE 064/084 066/084 068 222
IAH BE 065/084 066/084 068 222
GLS BE 070/079 071/079 072 222

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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (215 PM CDT)...
ELEVATED ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVE HOURS.

FOR UPCOMING PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE SAME THEME. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OR CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVERHEAD AND BRINGS
DISTURBANCES ACROSS. MOISTURE LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE QUITE AS FAST
AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE INDICATING. STILL EXPECT MOISTURE LEVELS
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT
LOW-LEVEL CAP WHICH IS IN PLACE COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR SFC
BASED CONVECTION. SHRT WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFT
...BUT WITHOUT A FOCUS WILL HAVE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. GFS INDICATING THAT THE WED-FRI PERIOD WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
AS FURTHER SHRT WVS MOVE ACROSS AND PW VALUES CONT TO INCREASE.
THEREFORE...CHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. I BELIEVE THAT
THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE SAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IF IT IS CORRECT...IT WILL BE
ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX THU AND FRI.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD END UP BEING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AND
THE TIMING OF WEST COAST ENERGY. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE ROAD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC THIS WEEKEND AND CHC ON MONDAY.

MARINE AREA IS QUIET...WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW AT AROUND 10-15
KNOTS.  33/40

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.