Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
937 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA HEADING THIS WAY. DO NOT EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP MUCH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CALL FOR CLOUDY SKIES
ON THE UPDATE. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD WITH THE HIGHER
NUMBERS IN OUR CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE HOUSTON AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS GOING TO GET WET LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.

.HGX...SCEC 20-60 NM WATERS.

UPDATED PRELIMS...
CLL CE 076/058 078/056 075 432
IAH TE 077/060 078/057 075 632
GLS TE 076/065 076/062 075 632

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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (314 AM CDT)...
KEEPING AN EYE OUT TO THE SW THIS MORNING. STRONG S/W MOVING ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE HELPING TO PRODUCE STORMS NEAR DRT DURING THESE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
OF THIS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN/NEAR SE TX BEGINNING BY
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMEFRAME. THE EXTRAPOLATED MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE WOULD PLACE THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND COAST-
AL ZONES FRO TODAY. SLIGHT CHC POPS TO LINGER INTO EARLY MON AS THE
COOL FRONT SAGS DOWN FROM THE NORTH..INTERACTING WITH WEAK IMPULSES
IN THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET. BRIDGING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED PUSH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE MON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS/
DISSIPATES OVER E/SE TX. THE RESPITE TO BE BRIEF (IF MODELS VERIFY)
AS WEAK S/WS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA (VIA THE STILL ACTIVE SWLY FLOW A-
LOFT). WILL BUMP POPS ON TUES/WED TO CHC AS MOISTURE PROFILES WOULD
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
INTO THUR AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF-SFC FRONT/DRYLINE COMBO MOVES THRU.
IF IT ALL HOLD TOGETHER AS PLANNED NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT DRIER/
LESS CLOUDY THAN THIS ONE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
BUT WE SHALL SEE...IT IS SPRING IN SE TX AFTER ALL... 41/33

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
711 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
RECEIVE SOME HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND MOVES
IN THIS DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.