Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 PM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

MARINE UPDATE...DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR ALL WATERS GIVEN TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AND STRONG WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST. MENTIONED GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS IN THE FORECAST.  35

TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS UNTIL 500 PM CST.

.HGX...TORNADO WATCH 51 IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST
       (TXZ164-178-179-199-200-213-214-237-238).
       SCA BAYS AND OFFSHORE WATERS.

42/35/31/46/43/38

PRELIMS...
CLL EB 060/049 075/050 075 632
IAH EB 077/051 075/052 076 522
GLS BB 075/060 072/061 073 31-
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1116 AM CST)...
UPDATED THE ZONES TO RAISE HOUSTON AREA POPS TO 50%. ALSO...GOT A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG THE EAST END OF THE LINE OF STORMS
BETWEEN LAKE CONROE AND WILLIS (ABOUT 1105 AM). EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE NOW IN SPCS DAY ONE MODERATE
RISK...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES APPEARS
TO BE ON THE INCREASE. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE COMING SOON FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
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.PREVIOUS UPDATE (1008 AM)...
HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL IN
MADISON COUNTY WITHIN THE PAST 30 TO 45 MINUTES. VIL OF THE DAY IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE AROUND 50. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...
INCLUDING THE COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON ISLAND AND MATAGORDA BAY.
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EDGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. WITH
MORE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE LINE OF STORMS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT RAPIDLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TOWARD LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT (CLL IS DOWN TO 56 DEGREES). WILL NEED TO DO SOME DOWNWARD
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DAYTIME
HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED. HOUSTON AREA MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

HAVE A FEELING WELL NEED TO DO SOME ZONE UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
DUE TO FAST MOVING PATTERN.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-182200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 AM CST TUE MAR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AS
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...BEGINNING LATER TODAY.