Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003

A BIT OF A COMPLICATED PATTERN OVER TX THIS EVENING.  A MID LEVEL LOW
WAS SPINNING NEAR TXK WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER N TX AND THE HILL
COUNTRY.  OVER SE TX A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHED THROUGH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-10 NEAR SEALY TO WHARTON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES.
THESE STORMS PRODUCED DIME TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  ONE STORM WAS
STILL MOVING OVER WESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY AND EXPECT IT TO STAY
STRONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT EASTERN MATAGORDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.  THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT CONCERNS FOG AND RAIN
POSSIBILITIES.

TACKLING RAIN CHANCES FIRST.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT
FARTHER EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW POSITION...THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD POOL HAVE DIED OUT AFTER SUNSET.  THERE STILL MAY BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER FAR E
TX AND W LA.  FOG CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH THE RAINFALL COVERAGE FROM
TODAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF WET GROUND AND THE HAIL THAT OCCURRED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.  THE DRY AIR WAS WELL TO THE NORTH AS SEEN
ON THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S AT UTS
AND LFK.  ALSO...SEA FOG MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST IF THE DEWPOINTS
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY LATER...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CONDITIONS WARRANT.  DO NOT
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTH TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAY FILTER INTO THAT AREA.  STILL THINK THAT
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.

PL-40
43

.HGX...NONE.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO BELLVILLE.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BOUNDARY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND
VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A
HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.