Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
135 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003

THE FRONT HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR FROM BPT TO COLUMBUS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HOLDING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. NEAR THE COAST 60S THE RULE. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM NEAR LAKE SOMERVILLE TO CROCKETT. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OVER BURLESON COUNTY ESTIMATING 5 TO 6 INCHES.
RAINFALL AT CLL MIDNIGHT TO 130 PM 2.76. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS.) IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE FAUCET. FRONT SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PLACE SOUTHERN FA IN FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PRECIP WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS NORTH OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS 62-66 WILL
BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ DEVELOPS. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION WILL WARRANT HIGH POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THREAT. EXPECTING STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 BEING FAIRLY
COMMON...ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. THE GREATER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE NORTHERN FA. WILL EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE AREA AND UP ACCUMULATIONS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE SW AND MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
ASSOCIATED MCV SWEEPS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS FOLLOWS BUT WILL BE QUICKLY
MODIFIED AS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
NEXT PACIFIC FRONT GETS JUST OFFSHORE AGAIN AND ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES QUICKLY WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING UP ON MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD
BE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION WELL INTO TUESDAY.

45/41/31/37

.HGX...FFA ALL OF SE TX.
       SCA HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 056/063 049/069 047 ++5
IAH TT 061/067 051/068 048 999
GLS TT 062/068 054/065 057 889

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
428 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003

...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO BEAUMONT WILL MEANDER
SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STREAM INLAND AND WILL
OVER RUN THIS BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOCUS HEAVY RAINS.  A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BRINGING BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES BY THE TIME THE EVENT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. CHECK OVER YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD BE ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.