Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

FRONT QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NEAR ABI-DFW-SHV LINE WITH OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SKIES OVER THE AREA HAVE
BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT FOR MADISON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS HAVE CONTINUED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP SLOWLY SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK LL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AND LL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR TXK MOVES EAST. LEFT FRONT QUAD IN SUBTROPICAL JET TO
TRAVERSE SETX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
TROUBLESOME AS COOL PUSH VERY WEAK. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ETA/GFS
AGREE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
OR COASTAL WATERS...BUT IN THE MEANTIME THE ISSUE IS PLACEMENT OF
WINDSHIFT. RAIN-COOLED AIR AND STRONGER CAA (ALBEIT WEAK) DIRECTED
INTO LA SO WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY IN THE BACKDOOR THROUGH TRINITY
COUNTY TONIGHT AND UTS IN THE AM AND IAH AROUND MIDNIGHT. OUTFLOW
FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD PUSH AN OUTFLOW INTO CLL AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE AT ITS PEAK THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN WANES
QUICKLY. SHOULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z LIFR POSSIBLE FOR CIGS AND VISBY.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR MONDAY BUT WILL LET THE
CHANCE POPS RIDE. ETA TRYING TO SPIN SOMETHING UP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE YUCATAN AND GIVEN ETAS PAST PERFORMANCE WILL
IGNORE THIS AND FAVOR THE GFS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.
SLIGHT DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUE-THU. PROFILE BEGINS TO
MOISTEN UP ON FRIDAY BUT LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR REGION. ECMWF HAS TRENDED LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE SLOWER MRF YESTERDAY AND TODAYS FASTER
RUN...LEADING TO A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY.

45/47/D

.HGX...NONE.
CLL EE 067/083 067/085 065 443
IAH CE 068/083 068/085 065 243
GLS EE 071/083 070/082 070 223

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
500 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.