Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2003

SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. PESKY CELLS JUST REFUSE TO DIE. 46/33

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPDATED UPCOMING ZONES TO REFLECT ORGANIZING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF
CWFA. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF CWFA.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK FROM THE NE AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

37/47/DH

CLL UU 074/099 074/099 074 12-
IAH BB 075/096 075/097 075 331
GLS BB 080/091 080/091 080 332

220 PM DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION NOW SCATTERED OVER LOUISIANA W/A FEW DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME
SE PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GOES SOUNDING LOOP INDICATED LARGE SWATH
OF HIGH PW VALUES OVER NORTHERN GULF AND COASTAL REGIONS FROM FL TO
LA. SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY INITIATE
SOME CONVECTION SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
UPPER HIGH JUST TO NORTH OF CWFA AND RIDGING SOUTH. ORIENTATION OF
THIS HIGH WILL BECOME MORE LIKE E-W AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF NEXT SEVERAL DAYS W/THIS TROUGH
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY. BY THEN UPPER HIGH
WILL HAVE SHIFTED WEST TO THE ROCKIES WHILE AMPLIFYING. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WE EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE AS THE INITIATING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWFA. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE SOUTH AND ISOLATED NORTH. ETA INDICATE A
SLIGHT LOWERING OF 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES BUT GFS STAYS ABOUT
THE SAME. 850 MB TEMPS AS PER GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE THE ACROSS
CWFA FOR THE COMING WEEK. MARINE WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A RATHER
FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...AND WE EXPECT 5-10 KNOTS PREVAILING WINDS.

37/47/DH

C

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN LOUISIANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. SHOULD THIS LINE
REMAIN INTACT...IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LIVINGSTON TO FREEPORT...INCLUDING THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA...WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.