Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THE FOUR CORNERS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ETA TO
BE SQUEEZED ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.  AS IT
DOES SO...THE WEAK 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO TX BY WEDNESDAY.  THE VERY ACTIVE CORRIDOR ACROSS SE AND E TX
TODAY MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUM PUSH SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS.  BY THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH AT THAT TIME THE GFS
MOVES A TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY CONCERNS SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN POPS TUESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE ETA AND GFS DIFFER ESPECIALLY IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES AS THE GFS SPINS UP LOW ALONG THE COAST AND
PUSHES IT TOWARD LA WHILE THE ETA KEEPS MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH.
FEEL THAT THE ETA MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONCERNING POPS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE EARLY THIS EVENING.  OVERNIGHT THE BEST AREAS LOOK TO BE MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AS THE 500 MB LOW APPROACHES SE TX...IF THE GFS AND ETA
ARE CORRECT.  TO TAKE INTO THE ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT BE
SPECIFIC IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL MENTION THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
TONIGHT.  LIKE THE ETA MORE THAN THE GFS BEYOND TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT COMPROMISE.  WILL UP POPS SOME SATURDAY TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE GFS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE MODEL PULLS
PW/S OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

PL-40
33

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 072/090 071/089 071 554
IAH TE 075/088 072/088 072 654
GLS TT 078/086 078/087 077 654

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY FALL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

LARGELY DEPENDING ON AREAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING NEAR THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE LOWER IF
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE REGION INTERACTS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. ON TUESDAY...THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND. PROLONGED
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME MAY ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS
AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
0110 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1130 AM    GROVETON                  TX   WIND DAMAGE
08/11/03   TRINITY                        TREES DOWN AT COURTHOUSE

1210 PM    POINT BLANK               TX   0.88 IN HAIL
08/11/03   SAN JACINTO

1220 PM    RIVERSIDE                 TX   WIND DAMAGE
08/11/03   WALKER                         TREES DOWN

LW